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Thursday, November 21, 2013

Conditions on #Earth -- EU Floods RISING?

Conditions on Earth
EU Floods Rising
1985-2009
Norwegian Meteorological Institute 
  October 27, 2013 
Climate Change? 

Worst Flooding in "Seventy" Years


Should we hop onto the climate change bandwagon with every trend and event that points to the idea that conditions on earth are different? Why not join all the other Chicken Little’s out there as evidence grows to support the view that the sky is truly falling?  

Well, in both cases we do not think it is wise to start any related analysis and evaluation requiring objective answers with the favored belief that one is seeking to prove in mind. Therefore, the following comments are provided on the basis of examining these issues as though it is for the very first time, with no prior knowledge or bias one way or the other. Let's see what happens.

Firstly, the above captioned chart shows more and more floods of greater magnitude are occurring in Europe every year, since 1985.  Yet these events "cannot be directly tied to climate change" caused by our economic activities and their rising release of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Why? It is difficult to show a clear and direct x-axis to y-axis linear relationship between the floods and carbon emissions simply because there are too many other variables involved.

Meaning, that the empirical and actual situation is fluid and dynamic - and hence, much more non-linear. To examine it would require a form of three-dimensional four-quadrant graph that plots hundreds of unique factors on multiple axis’s inter-playing among them. In short, this form of graphical-multiple-linear analysis probably just becomes all too foggy, subjective and complicated to produce or to draw accurate causation findings from.

So consequently, we cautiously turn to identifying a list of trending growth factors with  "possible correlations" between carbon emissions growth and its related factors, such as GDP and population levels, that could cause or contribute to climate change and its related negative outcomes, such as Europe's floods. Importantly, we must remember that just because two or more independent variables are highly correlated, it does not prove that there is a cause and effect relationship between the two. There may be no relationship at all; in other words, correlation does not necessarily prove causation. 

Here then is a list of factors that could create possible correlations that link economic activity to climate change and and then back to other negative effects occurring on the planet  (link to chart samples)   The factors identified over varying time periods of up to seventy-five years, include...

...growth in money supply, in global stock market values, in global GDP, in fossil fuel consumption, in population totals, in resource exhaustion, in warming temperatures, in fresh water shrinkage, in species extinctions, in pollinating insect declines, in shrinking ice caps and glaciers, in ocean acidification, floods and wildfires, and in carbon emissions from the use of fossil fuels. 

With simple visual observation and inspection of each factors growth charts we can readily conclude that there is a fairly high correlation among all these factors. (We have referenced a number of the charts above, while others are readily attainable through on-line sources). As you can see these charts all look like flat J-curves or hockey sticks, that could also be mathematically described as a diagrams of a curvilinear equation, as compared to linear. This distinction is key because the former describes a rapidly accelerating growth pattern whereas the latter conveys a slow steadier incremental situation.

Moreover the charts show that these factors are actually in the dangerous exponential zone, transforming from their once linear patterns to curvilinear visual diagrams. Meaning that the underlying aggregate events, related to the factors, are accelerating very rapidly. That is not very good at all, but we still cannot absolutely conclude that the growing populations, economies and carbon emissions are causing shifts in the climatic conditions which can be linked to the other negative consequences 

Given these strong visual chart correlations among the various factors could we not just try to connect the dots among them?  Certainly some seemingly logical connections could be drawn up, perhaps starting at population growth leading to the various economic growth factors, then to the growing destructive consequences. To do so, would provide murky conclusions given the above-mentioned difficulty regarding the proving of clear and direct cause and effect relationships in a fluid non-linear dynamic state.  The complexities’ are intense.

Winston Churchill once remarked that out of intense complexities, intense simplicities emerge. So we turn to his guidance to find and apply a simpler way of understanding this complex predicament. As a result, we created a short listing that separates the key identified growth factors into either "Good Economic Growth" or "Bad Scientific Growth" to see what observations and conclusions might emerge under intense simplicities. 

Also note that the expected outcomes from the two growth types are very different in purpose and implications. Good economic growth is largely expected to create more and more so-called, happy human beings - a definition of which is beyond this discussion, while the expected outcome of bad scientific growth is expected to create or cause the destruction and degradation of the planet. If there is any relationship between good economic and bad scientific growth then an interesting paradox would result.It could insanely read as follows:

"In order to have more and more happy people; greater destruction and degradation must be more rapidly applied to the source ( Planet Earth) of that happiness, until such time as is it is no longer able to function as a source of the happiness. More importantly, we must do all that we can to ensure that it happens as soon as possible"  


List of Key Growth Factors   

Good Economic Growth = More Happy People  

Population 
GDP
Stock Market  Values
Money Supply
Fossil Fuels (limited consumption)
Other minerals (limited consumption)
Arable land (limited consumption)
Fish stocks (limited consumption)  

Bad Scientific Growth = Destruction Happiness Source

Carbon emissions
Warming temperatures
Resource exhaustion
Species (other) extinction
Fresh water shrinkage
Loss of pollinating insects
Shrinking Ice Caps and Glaciers
Floods and wildfires
Ocean Acidification

Stripped of the benefits of mathematical, mechanical or other forms of scientific device, the burden of judgement and conclusion now rests with the last cognitive device at our disposal. Common Sense!  The above list, along with visually correlating charts for the growth factors; all other pictorial and documented reports leads to one simple concluding statement that is easy to understand and hold in your head, And it can be said without the confidence of any provable evidenced physical or mathematical relationships - mostly just common sense. And it goes something like this:

"Whatever we are doing to create more and more happy people is, at the same time, destroying the source of such happiness - rapidly"  

And it is that one last small word that causes the greatest of all fears - even in fear itself. That fear stems because rapid also means exponential. And the exponents are not known for each growth factor or whether they too are increasing. We are operating blindly to dangers, any one of which could spin out of control with little or no notice. 

The statement itself leads to thousands of other questions. Why so many people? How much happiness is needed? What can we do better to minimise the destruction? How long will the source last? How many people can be made happy? What happens as the source reduces the happiness it provides? And on and on... 

So in the end we have no direct proof that any one good economic growth factor can be traced to a particular degrading process or destructive events. For all intents and purposes this commentary is adding more weight to the arguments of all the deniers. All we have is an intensely simple analysis with supporting charts that tells our common sense that whatever we are doing to create happiness for people is "rapidly" destroying the source of that happiness. 

Our common sense then turns to ask the all to obvious, " How long will it last?" Is the inertia behind all these growth factors now too great to stop or in some cases reverse it, to avoid an unspeakable conclusion? Many processes and destructive events continue just as these additional  pictures of  the flooding trends and events in Europe  indicate. Many more could be added from around the globe.

So is the metaphorical sky falling? Should we hop on the bandwagon? A lot depends on how you personally want to weight the good economic and bad scientific factors. Such a weighting should also include a provision for the exponential rates of each factor. But put it this way, based on our intense simple analysis and statement - an unimaginable amount and degree of contradictory evidence would be required to support and substantiate an opposing point of view.

Perhaps then, the more important and best question to now ask is:


What can we do, if anything, about it?


Conditions on earth are different...

First Financial Insights
T.A McNeil
CEO and Founder 
November 21, 2013



Get on the Bandwagon!


 





Friday, November 15, 2013

Infinity Express #Flight2100: Entropy Fueled

Never in the history of literature has any short story entered the world with such fanfare, mystery and expectation. For a few moments thousands of eyes from all around the globe will be engaged for a brief minute or two making, at the very least, literary history. For days, months and years thereafter, thousands of minds are destined to confront the enigma of “Infinity Express Flight 2100: Entropy Fueled”. For as John Milton so profoundly stated in Paradise Lost – “the mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven”

Are you ready to board this Starship? Are you sure?

IN-FLIGHT VIDEO





Infinity Express Flight 2100: Entropy Fueled
 – A silly little story …
Boarding passes were presented by the 10,000 or so passengers who happily jumped onto Starship Earth, some 250,000 years ago. For Infinity Express Airlines, Flight 2100, was then finally boarded; destined to take its passengers to the last shores of Eternity. Engines were fueled by cosmic fuel - entropy; the flight crew was a top class professional team, captained by Economics, while Theology, Politics and Science rounded out the rest of the key cabin crew members.

After take-off, the passengers’ only concerns were survival, procreation and creating the distractions needed to keep their brains’ - primary organ - neurological mass and energy mix, actively producing a range of various cognitions. Through their cognitions they could also create many stories that would allow them to organize and entertain themselves over an expected long voyage. So they did all these things. It was a circular process, like everything else around them.

All the essential necessities were provided in the cargo store for this journey, along with enough entropy supply for the Starship’s engines, as well as, the daily use of passengers for their survival needs and distractions purposes. This cargo store was certified and approved prior to departure, and then managed, in flight, by the crew.

About fifty-nine “cosmic minutes” after takeoff, the Scientist was becoming concerned, that the now over seven billion travelers, had been consuming too much, from both the necessities cargo store and entropy fuel tanks. It was a grand party, as evidenced by the thick cabin smoke and clutter. But this ever-growing passenger population created after take-off was testing the logical stress limits of the ship and voyage. Particular attention was given to the half-full entropy fuel tanks. 

No worries” said both the Politicians and Theologians “The Captain says there is more than enough for another 250,000 years given past usage experience, more than enough to refuel at the next rest-stop along the way. “ With these assurances the passengers relaxed and continued with their affairs for a moment, not even realizing that they were still going around-in-circles. Moreover, the Scientist for some strange reason was quickly re-assigned to coach, with the other passengers.

Back in the cockpit cabin, its atmosphere was now engulfed by the team’s fear, high-tensions, blinking-lights and stuttering confusion. The abstract Positive-Sum Infinite (PSI) gauges for GDP, Wealth, and Growth were all stabilized and normal, but the concrete Negative-Sum Finite (NSF) gauges for Climate, Resources, Water and Biosphere had just jumped sharply into J-curve configurations. The Politician, and now acting flight engineer, immediately pulled-out and started reading the” Infinity Express - Emergency and Flight Disaster Protocols Manual.

“Quickly, what are we supposed to do?” asked the sweat-drenched Captain.

“Captain,” replied the Politician, “it says we are now  Linear Curve Code Red Nth”

“Then, what does it say next. Tell me! Quickly! Please?”cried a clearly terrified Captain.

“Strange Captain? All it says is that, the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. Dr Albert A Bartlett. That’s it?”

“Holy jumping Star bucks guys – the fuel tank just dropped to empty. Get into batten-down mode; we gotta to tell the passengers,” bellowed the now highly-strung Captain at the top of his lungs.

Suddenly, back in coach, in just a few brief moments the Captain’s voice broke the newly found Starship’s passengers’ cabin short-lived calm. “Attention all passengers, please push back your trays; buckle your seat belts as our indicators are telling us that we are about to enter an unexpected area of accelerated exponential turbulence” the Captain deeply lamented in an official resonant tone.

Then just as suddenly, sparse moments after the sturdy voice left their ears - the engines went quiet. Then a brief ghostly hiss, followed by Dead Silence…

Hardly moments later, within the carnage of terrifying wreckage, a few survivors clung to their last gasps of time. A young little girl softly and quietly turns to her father’s darkened somber face. With all her remaining strength she blurts, “Why? Why Daddy? Why? 

A single lonely teardrop etches on his face, then falls into the soulless murmur of waves flowing into an existential universe. Looking for the welcoming hand of eternity’s shores? Or humanity’s last thought?


There were no hands, no shores and no thoughts in the remnants and carnage of unanswered why’s. Only whys. And then, another cosmic minute lapsed, bearing the soft humming sounds of another passing Starship... 

...Infinity Express, Flight CM2E - heading rapidly towards…




the mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven”



Special thanks to  those who contributed alphabetically to the crafting of this parody;  Paul Chefurka, Chris Clugston, Fred Magyar, Terry McNeil, Frosty Wooldridge and Dr Peter G Kinesa.  And a very special acknowledgement and thanks to the late Dr Albert A Bartlett, whose famous quote is cited above regarding humanity’s (particularly mainstream economics) inability  to understand and apply the exponential function.- a conceptual failing which will ultimately have such profound effects on its condition, sustainability and longevity. In the end, it should prove to be one of its greatest failings of understanding and intellectual honesty.

DEBUTS TODAY - Infinity Express #Flight2100 Entropy Fueled





Infinity EXPRESS
Flight 2100
Entropy fueled



Are you ready to board this Starship?
Are you sure?
November 15, 2013
7.00 pm EST







Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Infinity Express #Flight2100 - IMPORTANT PASSENGER MESSAGE

IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO PASSENGERS
#Flight2100
IT IS ALL ABOUT
ENTROPY


ATTENTION PASSENGERS;



Why there is any debate about what is the primary root constraint and determinant of our journey, makes no sense at all, in our opinion. Entropy is the most pervasive defining principle of our understood universe's elements and relationships. It simply interconnects all things.

Below is a brief pre-flight video documentary, released this past March, that adds further support to this universal connection string; starting from our primary survival and procreation needs, to the economyto money, to oil, to energy, and then right back to entropy Except for Ivy-League(sic) Economists and Nobel Prize Winners, these are straightforward connections that most folks can readily understand  - Right?  

Peak Oil and Economic Contraction


The paradox is that the need to survive and procreate drives the entropy that ultimately creates a final heat death or a situation where no organized form of energy exists, to particularly serve our survival need, in the universe. And our survival need appears to have a deeply-embedded insatiable-thirst for energy, which in itself contradicts its initial purpose. And that's not as straightforward. 
Moreover, we seem to be constantly trying to fight or usurp this second law of thermodynamics. But instead, we unknowingly act as fully obedient servants to an invisible master, by doing all that we can to accelerate the transformation of usable energy into its chaotic form, despite fully knowing where it leads us. Worse still - we do so, with reckless and perverse exponential delight!  Hmm. 

However, there is  a resultant optimistic point in all this. Insofar as, if we do not identify and understand what the critical underlying issues and constraints are - then there is little or no chance of moving towards either its better situational management or even a possible solution. Quantum Physicists, such as  Vlatko Vedral, in his book Decoding Reality, sets out that there are logical possibilities beyond today's known rules of the universe. So there still remains a flicker of hope, in the painting of our darkening predicament. 

Whether any practical discoveries or broad applications evolve from this form of work and thought is impossible to know. But at the very least: it could yield for us a better attitude, which is a little thing - that can make all the difference!

Meanwhile - Flight 2100 is departing from Gate A23



 Cheers For Now!

First Financial Insights

On behalf  of:
Infinity Express Flight 2100
 5 November 2013