BIGGER FISH TO FRY - Comments The New York Times , July 26, 2021

 

BIGGER FISH TO FRY

Pandemics are a mere pimple on the back of an elephant when compared to the possibility of the Arctic Melting and causing a Blue Ocean Event later this year - which in turn could cause a rise in temperatures of 6 degrees C or more.

https://www.fasterthanexpected.one/tag/blue-ocean-event/

This would exacerbate the climate chaos and extreme weather patterns already being experienced and in all likelihood lead to the extinction of all vertebrate animals on the planet. This abrupt change in climate compares to that experienced during the Permian extinction when 90% of life on Earth perished. In short, we have much bigger fish to fry - much more than pimples on an elephant's back.

https://www.britannica.com/science/Permian-extinction....

Moreover, we should not lose sight of the looming energy and resource crisis that is bound to take hold in the next decade. Once the fossil fuels and other critical minerals are depleted there is no way for society to feed its huge energy appetite - economic and social collapse are imminent just as forecasted in 1972 by 27 researchers at MIT in their best selling book - 30 million copies - Limits to Growth.

https://donellameadows.org/.../a-synopsis-limits-to.../

Hence if the Arctic melt and Blue Ocean Event does not cause our collapse; then Mother Nature has a backstop of depleting all our critical energy and mineral resources in the not too distant future. One might say - Mother Nature Bats Last.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/.../why-collapse-occurs-why.../

In summary, it's time to stop fretting about relatively little pimples and to take a perspective of the whole elephant for what it is and says - we have MUCH BIGGER fish to fry...

T A McNeil

CEO Founder

First Financial Insights Inc.

Handle - Greta Prize Nobel

Published The New York Times, July 26, 2021

https://www.nytimes.com/.../louisiana-covid-vaccine...

WAR ON MIGRATION Hits Europe - Overpopulation Now Critical Issue, & More

Global Digest Comments

"In just a few short decades life on earth has changed dramatically.  
For in 1961 regimes were building walls to keep people in, and thus stop the national outflow of people. Today, we are ironically rebuilding those same walls to keep people out.  So we  will now need Churchill to rewrite his famous speech and come up with a new metaphoric term  that defines the "New Iron Curtain" that has descended upon so many nations; including the USA, around the globe.

Quite simply, we are facing "Wars On Migration" everywhere because the relationship between geographic carrying capacity and national population numbers are stressed to the limits. These are clear signs that we have reached the overall limits to growth on the planet as forewarned by MIT computer models in the 70's. You can thus expect that things are going to get much worse, before they ever get better.



The overpopulation crisis is also manifesting in many other ways, but what is clear and apparent is that urgent measures are needed to significantly reduce human populations to more harmonious and sustainable levels, before nature has its last word.

And you can rest assured - those will be very unpleasant words, indeed."

Mass Migration Threatens European Civilisation, Says Hungary PM

“Mass migration could change the face of Europe's civilisation. It is irreversible, There is no way back from a multicultural Europe. Neither to a Christian Europe, nor to the world of national cultures,. If we make a mistake now, it will be forever,"

Italians Torch Beds to Block 'Migrant' Arrivals

 

Fences rise in The Middle East and North Africa

 

Now the most walled region in the world, and range from fences inside cities to anti-migrant barriers.

 The Colossal Hoax Of Organic Agriculture

Organic certification is process-based. That is, certifying agents attest to the ability of organic operations to follow a set of production standards and practices which meet the requirements of the Organic Foods Production Act of 1990 and the [National Organic Program] regulations . . . If all aspects of the organic production or handling process were followed correctly, then the presence of detectable residue from a genetically modified organism alone does not constitute a violation of this regulation.

Water mafia: Why Delhi is buying 

water on the black market 

Young men charge towards the truck, clambering onto the top with pipes, which are then lowered into the tank. Others push the drums in place - there's a mad scramble to fill them up with clean water.

Fights break out as some people are pushed out of the way.

BILLIONS SPENT - WHY? 

ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 

July 31, 2015

Dr Peter G Kinesa's Digest 

Plant Life Destruction Forecasts Humanity's Fate, & More

"If human beings do not go extinct, and biomass drops below sustainable thresholds, the population will decline drastically, and people will be forced to return to life as hunter-gatherers or simple horticulturalists, according to the paper."

Human domination of the biosphere: Rapid discharge of the earth-space battery foretells the future of humankind

Abstract

Earth is a chemical battery where, over evolutionary time with a trickle-charge of photosynthesis using solar energy, billions of tons of living biomass were stored in forests and other ecosystems and in vast reserves of fossil fuels. In just the last few hundred years, humans extracted exploitable energy from these living and fossilized biomass fuels to build the modern industrial-technological-informational economy, to grow our population to more than 7 billion, and to transform the biogeochemical cycles and biodiversity of the earth. This rapid discharge of the earth’s store of organic energy fuels the human domination of the biosphere, including conversion of natural habitats to agricultural fields and the resulting loss of native species, emission of carbon dioxide and the resulting climate and sea level change, and use of supplemental nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar energy sources. The laws of thermodynamics governing the trickle-charge and rapid discharge of the earth’s battery are universal and absolute; the earth is only temporarily poised a quantifiable distance from the thermodynamic equilibrium of outer space. Although this distance from equilibrium is comprised of all energy types, most critical for humans is the store of living biomass. With the rapid depletion of this chemical energy, the earth is shifting back toward the inhospitable equilibrium of outer space with fundamental ramifications for the biosphere and humanity. Because there is no substitute or replacement energy for living biomass, the remaining distance from equilibrium that will be required to support human life is unknown.

The Humanitarian’s Dilemma

As the humanitarian crisis deepens for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, Doctors Without Borders is trying to heal their wounds without enabling the occupation. As the suffering has become normalized, we have been questioning the wisdom of our presence. This is the humanitarian’s dilemma: how to alleviate the suffering of a population while not enabling the powers at the root of the pain. Today, due to settlements, byways, checkpoints, and military deployments, Palestinians can inhabit less than 40 percent of the West Bank.

Solar and battery storage already cheaper than grid power in Australia

Adding one kilowatt-hour of battery storage raises that cost slightly, but is still well below the cost of the grid-sourced power. Even 5kWh of battery storage can be installed and still costs are below that of the grid.

Hungary Begins Building Border Fence to Keep Out Migrants

It is the major route for immigrants into Europe.

Kat Taylor: Changing the Face of Philanthropy 

If Taylor’s brand of philanthropy looks less like charity and more like commerce and politics, that’s on purpose. Her charitable giving spans more than two decades; at first she concentrated on education and cultural causes, donating money directly to organizations. But philanthropy alone, she says, cannot put a dent in the world’s problems unless it’s somehow connected to business and the social compact — and to society’s main institutions.

All The Ways Hackers Will Try To Kill You In The Future 

Remotely hacking and disabling a car's brake system, also the ability to jerk the steering wheel at will, with a simple laptop is not just on the horizon, it's here. As early as 2013, hackers were able to remotely gain access to cars and control them, including their brakes and lock systems. More recently, a $60 DIY device has been released which makes car hacking easier than ever. And this is what's going down before driverless cars hit the road.

Saudi Arabia Finally Gives Up

Saudi Arabia has long said that it has loads of untapped reserves and would, within a few years, be on track to increase oil production from 10 million barrels per day to as much as 15 million barrels of oil per day. But Saudi production has stayed stubbornly at 10 million barrels. 

Humanity Needs A Doctor - 40 Billion PLUS????

Humanity Needs A Doctor?

Earth's Current Population Equivalents 
Exceed 40 Billion

For sure the first thing we have to do is get the metrics right so that we can properly diagnose, manage and remedy, if possible, our  population predicament.

To do so, we must first understand that this is not about population numbers at all. Rather it is all about "population equivalents," but so long as the focus remains on person numbers, then we are doomed to head down the wrong path with little hope of finding a cure. In the end, you cannot remove a brain tumor by doing a heart transplant - it is just not going to happen.

There is no responsible economic organization or entity on this planet that does not have an accounting system with metrics to determine, monitor and control its status. So there is no good reason as to why we should not work towards and apply similar concepts for the whole planet as an initial way to get a handle on our planet's overall situation. As a metric - "population equivalents" is a fairly straightforward mathematical concept to apply as the prime unit of measure within this overall planetary accounting system.

Population equivalents should firstly allow us to start comparing apples to apples and not to pears, turnips and potatoes. For example, when the entropic/climate/resource footprint for each developed nation person is estimated to be 34 times larger than a underdeveloped nation's person - this comparison shows a huge gap in the annual-planetary cost  between these two person types to the planet. The implications of this difference needs to be better understood and managed based on objectives. As a medical professional you might start with an old idea and goal like - LONGEVITY!

Now consider the case when 100 million people migrate annually from these underdeveloped nations to developed countries. That migration alone  has the equivalent impact of adding 3.4 billion people to the underdeveloped nations population totals. Or you could also say it is equal to the birth of 3.4 billion people in these underdeveloped countries.

Put in another way - the 1 billion people footprint of developed nations calculates to an equivalent 34 billion people footprint in underdeveloped countries. Thus, the planet's population size using approximate actual numbers could be considered closer to 40 billion people when population equivalent footprint measures are used. (1 billion developed plus, 6 billion underdeveloped people)

BIG number? But now you be the doctor and tell the patient where you think the problem is - Heart or Brain?

So in order to get things right, we first and foremost need to start measuring properly. Moreover, it is a "conceptual technology"  that has been well-developed by the medical profession, among others, over many years. So why not apply it to the most important patient we know?

In short, we need to go beyond checking the patient's brain condition based on its pulse rate and advance ourselves to using proper clinical metrics and devices to better diagnose and remedy our sickly patient. In so doing, we may then stand an improved  chance of extending its life.

It is your call now ... Doctor!

First Financial Insights
December 10, 2013

"Doctors my pulse is fine. But, my head still hurts."

"That's strange... "

Earth's State of Population

Earth’s State of Population:

To diagnose, Doctors Need Metrics

Problem Overview

While I agree with the conclusions of the analysis regarding the unlikelihood of achieving sustainability, it is doing so from a similar but different conceptual framework - call it the eyes of a dispassionate Alien Doctor. Eyes that also conclude that the planet can never achieve any sort of sustainable population level because…

…earthlings are constantly trying to measure yards with inchsticks.

And without effective calibration metrics and devices, it is impossible to accurately diagnose analyze, remedy, manage or resolve any situation. It is the same as having either a thermometer or speedometer device that constantly show inaccurate and random readings – sooner or later, you get yourself into a heap of trouble, including extreme illness or death.

When it comes to state of population measures, there is no generally accepted accurate metric or unit of measure and thus no possible way to calibrate “the state of population.”  (Adding up individual head counts is a largely irrelevant number for management purposes as supported and confirmed by comparative numerical illustrations below.) Again, so would you ever drive a car without knowing its speed? Yet we continue to talk of population control with little or no understanding of what and how to measure its current state. There is no effective unit of relevant measure to be applied by conceptual devices. Making it impossible to diagnose, analyze, project, plan, remedy or create the desired sustainable population state. Without these tools, we are destined to randomly drive not just a car, but an entire planet over the cliff.

Key Assumptions

Here is a simple illustration that acts to explain the calibration and metric issues regarding “the state of population.” First, it is well known that annual oil consumption per capita, in North America, Europe and Japan (Western Complex), averages anywhere from 32 to 36 barrels per capita. While India and China (Eastern Complex), developing countries with over 3 billion in combined populations, annually average a mere one or two barrels per person. 

Thus, using this proxy measure, the ecological and consumption footprint is said and calculated to be 17 times (17:1 ratio) greater for each person living in the Western Complex. Given the known relationships between oil consumption and its environmental effects, this footprint is thus assumed to also share proportionately in the maladies now affecting the planet, in terms of climate, oceans, economics, geopolitical issues and all forms of biodegradations.

Case Study Illustrations

Now here’s the good news, with Doctor Alien’s powers, the Doctor was able to reduce our planet’s population to one billion people in fifty years through birth restrictions, natural attrition and other civil means, without war, conflict or any other sort of adverse human expense. Everyone should be overwhelmed with joy as there are now 6 billion fewer people on the planet and all existence concerns and threats should start  improving. Humanity should now be able to survive for hundreds of more years. One cannot imagine that anybody would be displeased with this great success – the miracle of all times!

Except for our good Doctor Alien. Because the bad news is that the remaining one billion are only Western Complex people and they have also concurrently doubled their footprint over the past fifty years, to a 34:1 ratio*, while they continued pursuing the infinite growth theories prescribed by their trusted neo-classical economic gurus. Life was good. Converting this, however, to the Eastern Complex’s individual footprint from fifty years back, the planet now has an equivalent population of 34 billion Eastern Complex people. It is now severely overcapacity.

* Eastern Complex people, for purposes of this illustration did not increase their footprint over the fifty year period it is considered the base or steady state.

Including a population equivalency of 500 million Western Complex people embedded in today’s 7.1 billion figure – what stands out in this hypothetical experiment, is that even with a dramatic decrease of 6 billion to 1 billion in global population numbers; we end up being worse off by more than doubling in footprint terms. Why? Because the new population consists only of 1 billion Western Complex persons, who were also busy doubling their ecological and consumption footprints, pursuing endless growth, over the past fifty years of global depopulation.

Here’s another way to look at this experiment in fifty years. For a moment, personify yourself as the planet earth and you have to make a decision about what Complex offers you the best opportunity to survive and build a long-term relationship. You have only two choices. You can choose to cohabit with 1 billion people from the Western Complex or 7 billion people from the Eastern Complex who do not pursue an endless growth strategy. Even with its 6 billion more people, for strictly rationale reasons, you choose the Eastern Complex simply because your longevity timeline is extended roughly five-fold (34/7). That is the most logical decision based on the arithmetic outcomes using the equivalent population metrics. On the other hand, if you decided based strictly on the absolute numbers, that 1 billion is lower than 7 billion, then you would have curtailed your life-expectancy by 75%.  (As an aside, most smokers would probably have no problem quitting this addiction when faced with these grim numbers)

Imagine that! For the planet, in this numeric experiment, the 7 Billion low-consuming people are clearly a much better choice, than the 1 billion hyper-consuming addicted people!  Most of us at first blush, would have likely thought otherwise. We did

Preliminary Conclusions

Leading to the conclusion that often-used unit of measure or metric “absolute population by persons “does not in any way calibrate “the state of the population” and it is not a meaningful metric or relevant unit of measure in any way whatsoever in this regard – you just are driving the car without a speedometer and surely heading for a heap of trouble - probably over the cliff. For planetary management purposes the number has limited utility on its own.

Moreover, the much better unit of measure or metric, calibrates “the state of population” based on ‘population equivalents ‘A metric that moves to embedding and calculating the aggregate of a specific population’s individual ecological and consumptive footprints on the planet. Shifting to measuring and managing planetary affairs based on generally accept “population equivalent metrics,” rather than just simple headcounts. is both profound and far-reaching. But, without qualification it is absolutely imperative if one hopes to better manage the population and planet’s resources and conditions towards a mix achieving their optimal longevities.

For as the good Doctor Alien’s final Inter-galactic Committee Report reads:

“…earthlings can no longer afford to be constantly trying to measure yards with inchsticks…”

T.A McNeil

First Financial Insights

October 18,2013

“Without accurate measurements we cannot even effectively diagnose the patient to begin with…”

Inter-Galactic Committee Earth Report*

October, 2013

 

HUMANITY'S TOP PRIORITIES

Humanity’s

Top Priorities

Rule #1: Top priorities are non-linear

A few days back a number of colleagues were discussing whether over-population or climate change should have a greater priority. One person stated that such a debate was meaningless, as they both must be addressed in equal form and substance. I agreed, but took it all one step further. Writing that there are multiple threats facing humanity that need to be dealt with concurrently and equally. As each threat entails unknown, unknowns which could bring about unspeakable events. Our fragility has never been so complex and exposed. 
   
 Terry



Comments: October 17, 2013

I concur and believe there is no sense debating what problem has the greatest priority, as there are just too many unknown, unknowns. Four practical concerns come readily to mind. One, the other reactors at Fukushima could blow sky-high at any moment with undefinable outcomes.Two, all pollinating bugs could disappear everywhere, in short order; seriously disrupting global food chains.Three, biochemical events could rapidly accelerate the acidification of the Oceans in just months - then all bets are off. Four, a limited nuclear outburst in the Middle East could trigger Russia's automated and antiquated "dead-hand launch system" that effects an all-out strike on Western targets.

Notably, these concerns do not include more popular discussion topics such as; financial collapse, climate change, and overpopulation. Suggesting that we face multiple issues whose ranking values in terms of priority are hidden. Leading one to assert that the actual problem is that there is no complete solution because humanity ultimately faces the universal constraints of entropy and infinity. To my knowledge, applied physics has not discovered any devices or means that would allow us to leap over these barriers. 

It is then paradoxical that there is no solution, which in and of itself is the solution.    

Moreover, facing the governing laws of physics and the vast number of unknown, unknowns it seems debating, discoursing or conversing about prioritising these concerns would bear little fruit as there are no absolute metrics that could be applied to objectively weight these concerns. Even if that were possible, there is always the possibility that some other concern would jump onto the agenda, seemingly out of the blue  - making all preceding concerns and debates completely irrelevant. 

So , that's why I agree with you and conclude that we'll just have deal with them all concurrently, notwithstanding what gets in our way.

Sincerely,

T.A McNeil

First Financial Insights

October 17, 2013    

WHY ECONOMICS FAILS?

WHY

Economics Fails?

The question of why economics failed came up in a recent economic forum "Unlearning Economics" wherein the following response was provided. This is obviously a short version of a much more in depth complex answer but should serve to drive the fundamental point across "Economics ignores the macro-physical rules of reality at great peril" It is a peril, that in the end, exponentially advances the last chapters of the human condition. 


"Economics simply fails because it ignores the laws of physics, exponential mathematics and the concept of eternity. It falsely believes its abstractions and theories, which create a make-believe positive-sum-game world, will, by sheer hope and dreams, overcome and defeat the negative-sum game constraints that define existential reality. It AIN'T going to happen - Entropy and Eternity will win the day - being absolutes that you cannot convince, negotiate or legislate in any way.

When Einstein said he was not sure about eternity, but certain there was no end to human stupidity - there is little doubt he was thinking specifically about economics with its beliefs, gurus and sheep...

So the writing is on the wall, as economies all over the world are beginning to look more like Nauru or Easter Island with every passing day. From Cyprus and Iceland, to PIIGS, to Egypt and Syria and now to even Venezuela or possibly Japan - what is perfectly clear is that when you run out of inputs (i.e. resources) it is utterly impossible to produce outputs, such as food, regardless of how much Keynesian currency and debt you print and create, to feed your hungry civilians. "Again, it just AIN'T going to happen.”

Now you try explaining that to an Economist. Good Luck!"

T A McNeil
CEO and Founder

First Financial Insights Inc.
October 14, 2013

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them"