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Monday, May 20, 2019

Middle East Tensions Add #Risks To #Oil Shipping


"if security in the Gulf region deteriorated, then insurers may be left with no choice but to increase marine insurance premiums."

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Global Oil Shipping Concerns Rise Over Middle East Tensions


While global oil markets are accustomed to factoring geopolitical uncertainty into oil prices, this kind of geopolitical fallout hasn’t been seen for a number of years. The world’s largest oil exporter, that still along with its OPEC+ partners, plays the role of global oil markets swing producer, is seeing an escalation of attacks on its oil export infrastructure and shipping.
Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday that armed drones had attacked two of its oil pumping stations. This came just two days after the sabotage of two oil tankers carrying Saudi oil near the UAE. Meanwhile, the U.S. military, amid an increasingly tense tit for tat exchange of words between Washington and Tehran, said it was braced for “possibly imminent threats to U.S. forces in Iraq” from Iran-backed forces.

Tuesday’s attacks on the pumping stations more than 200 miles west of Riyadh and Sunday’s attack on four tankers off the UAE have raised concerns that the U.S. and Iran might be inching toward military conflict. However, on Thursday Trump told media that he did not want a war with Iran.

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Also on Thursday, a Saudi-led coalition carried out airstrikes on Sanaa, the Yemeni capital. The deadly airstrikes, that reportedly left six dead, came after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who control the capital, claimed responsibility for the Tuesday drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s critical oil pipeline. All of this, of course, isn’t being lost on global oil markets which ticked up on Thursday by more than 1 percent. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures ended the day’s session at $72.62/barrel, up 1.18 percent, while U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 1.37 percent, at $62.87/barrel, near its highest level in two weeks.
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US WARSHIPS HEAD TOWARDS MIDDLE EAST


Wednesday, May 15, 2019

#OPEC Production Continues Slide - Can USA Stave Off Global Peak #Oil?

"Saudi Arabia dropped another 45,000 barrels per day in April"





OPEC April Production Data


The data below was taken from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through April 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day. The data is crude only, that is it does not include condensate.
Total OPEC production hardly moved in April, down a mere 3,000 barrels per day.


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THE FUTURE OF OIL


Tuesday, May 14, 2019

#Shale Oil Peak Signals Serious #Economic Decline

"It will severely impact the world economy because with U.S. shale oil accounting for 66% of the rise in global oil production over the past decade, it was the leading driver for economic growth"



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Global Economic Growth In Serious Trouble When U.S. Shale Oil Peaks & Declines

The global economy would be in serious trouble if it weren’t for the rapid growth of U.S. shale oil production.  Since the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. shale oil production has increased by more than 6 million barrels per day.  Without these additional barrels of oil, the massive money printing and asset purchases by the central banks would not have been as successful in propping up the economy and markets.
We must remember this simple fact; energy drives the markets, not finance. Finance steers the market.  So, for the economy to expand, there must be oil production growth.  However, it would be unwise for the market-economy to rely upon the U.S. shale industry as the leading driver of global oil production growth for the foreseeable future.



Why?  Well, there are several reasons, but let’s first look at how much the increase in U.S. shale oil production has accounted for the rise in global oil supply since 2008. Of the 9.6 million barrels per day (mbd) of global oil production growth 2008-2017, the United States supplied two-thirds or 6.3 mbd of the total:

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THE FALSE PROMISE OF SHALE OIL

Monday, May 13, 2019

#MarketWatch: Massive Corporate #Bond Losses Expected With #Recession



“Corporate debt isn’t going to cause the next recession, but it’s where the pain will be in the next recession.”

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U.S. Recession Would Spur ‘Massive’ Corporate Bond Losses, Eisman Says


The U.S. corporate debt market will suffer “massive losses” if the world’s biggest economy falls into recession, said Steve Eisman, the Neuberger Berman Group money manager who famously predicted the collapse of subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis.
While the U.S. financial system is strong, “that doesn’t mean we won’t have a recession,” Eisman said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong on Thursday. “And in a recession I think there will be massive losses in the bond markets because there’s a lack of liquidity.”
“You will see big losses in things like triple-B corporate debt, high-yield etcetera, but you need a recession first,” he said. “Corporate debt isn’t going to cause the next recession, but it’s where the pain will be in the next recession.”
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Eisman’s early bets against the housing market before the 2008 crisis were chronicled in Michael Lewis’s 2010 book “The Big Short,” which highlighted money managers who profited from the market turmoil. A character based on him was played by Steve Carell in the movie adaptation of the book.
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CENTRAL BANKS ARE ALSO CONCERNED


Tuesday, May 7, 2019

#Economic Collapse Looms - Just Do The #Math


"The main lesson for me is that growth is not a “good quantum number,” as physicists will say: it’s not an invariant of our world. Cling to it at your own peril" 

By Tom Murphy

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Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist

Some while back, I found myself sitting next to an accomplished economics professor at a dinner event. Shortly after pleasantries, I said to him, “economic growth cannot continue indefinitely,” just to see where things would go. It was a lively and informative conversation. I was somewhat alarmed by the disconnect between economic theory and physical constraints—not for the first time, but here it was up-close and personal. Though my memory is not keen enough to recount our conversation verbatim, I thought I would at least try to capture the key points and convey the essence of the tennis match—with some entertainment value thrown in.
Cast of characters: Physicist, played by me; Economist, played by an established economics professor from a prestigious institution. Scene: banquet dinner, played in four acts (courses).
U.S. total energy 1650-present (logarithmic)
Note: because I have a better retention of my own thoughts than those of my conversational companion, this recreation is lopsided to represent my own points/words. So while it may look like a physicist-dominated conversation, this is more an artifact of my own recall capabilities. I also should say that the other people at our table were not paying attention to our conversation, so I don’t know what makes me think this will be interesting to readers if it wasn’t even interesting enough to others at the table! But here goes…

Act One: Bread and Butter

Physicist: Hi, I’m Tom. I’m a physicist.
Economist: Hi Tom, I’m [ahem..cough]. I’m an economist.
Physicist: Hey, that’s great. I’ve been thinking a bit about growth and want to run an idea by you. I claim that economic growth cannot continue indefinitely.
Economist: [chokes on bread crumb] Did I hear you right? Did you say that growth can not continue forever?


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MIT LIMITS TO GROWTH