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Monday, September 23, 2019

SouthEast #Asia Downturn Poses Serious #Economic Risks

"the next downturn will likely be broad-based and not limited to an acute financial crash, as it is set to be “a more typical economic correction at the end of a cycle”."

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Southeast Asia at risk of faring worse in next downturn than in global financial crisis’


SINGAPORE — Southeast Asia is more vulnerable to an economic downturn than it was during the global financial crisis one decade ago, according to analysts at global management consultancy Bain & Co.

Greater exposure to a slowing China – and other structural economic shifts – have left most Asean markets in a more perilous position than before, according to a report released on Friday.

Half of the region’s economies have fallen into a current account deficit as exports tumbled, while Vietnam and the Philippines were the only two countries not to post lower growth in 2018.

The commodities sector will not be as able to cushion the economic blow, as prices and sales are both down, while corporate and household debt have blown past 2008 and 2009 levels to reach the private-sector leverage of more developed markets such as the United States.

“The region’s strong economic growth does not, in fact, shelter it from harm should other parts of the world sink into a downturn or even a recession,” said the report.



Saturday, September 21, 2019

#Week4Future: Global #Climate #Strike Week - @postcarbon

At this unprecedented pivital juncture in human history First Financial Insights is pleased to annouce its support and endorsement of the beliefs, policies and actions of:

Our Strategy

Post Carbon Institute provides individuals and communities with the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated ecological, economic, energy, and equity crises of the 21st century. We help build resilience to withstand these crises, and support social and cultural change to make society more ready to take decisive and appropriate action. Specifically, we:
  • Grow collective understanding of our energy reality, and the need for both conservation and appropriate, community-centric renewable energy.
  • Promote community resilience as the best way to build thriving, relocalized neighborhoods, towns, and cities capable of withstanding coming disruptions.
  • Support a growing movement of innovators and early adopters who can develop best practices and provide leadership both now and during future crises.

"But even if hope has to be held lightly in the steely-eyed recognition of what we face, we still must take action. Much of that action comes back to our own backyards."

A sea change moment?

September 19, 2019

Tomorrow begins Global Climate Strike Week, led by young people to demand urgent action to address the climate emergency. What many hope will be a sea change moment in the struggle to mobilize a real response to this existential threat had a humble start a year ago when a young Swedish student, Greta Thunberg, began spending her Fridays protesting in front of the Swedish Parliament. Inspired by Greta’s example—and her blunt, uncompromising stance—millions of students have since joined her in the “Fridays for the Future” movement. This week is an opportunity for the rest of us to participate.
I will be out on the streets tomorrow and the following Friday in my hometown, and I’ll be joining a number of other activities planned locally over the coming week. PCI is supporting our staff to actively participate in the various communities where they live. We’d like to encourage you to do the same. Visit the Climate Strike website to find activities near you.

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Learn More

The Most Important Speech Ever

Tuesday, September 17, 2019


Hello Everyone,

I work on issues surrounding the climate crisis nearly every day, but I still struggle to talk about the magnitude of the situation with my family and friends. Finding the right approach to these conversations—so we can keep talking even when we disagree or leave the conversation feeling empowered rather than disheartened—can be truly challenging.

Which is why I'm so excited about our live webinar with Karin Kirk and Susanne MoserWe Need to Talk: How to have difficult conversations about the climate crisis.
Karin Kirk has taught courses about climate change, overseen energy conservation projects, worked on national-scale climate education efforts, and measured the effectiveness of NOAA's website. While a scientist by training, Karin is particularly intrigued by the intersection of science and the human dimension.
Dr. Susanne MoserSusanne Moser is a geographer who works nationally and internationally as an independent scholar and consultant from a base in western Massachusetts. Her work with government agencies, non-profits, foundations, and other researchers and consultants focuses on adaptation to climate change, resilience, transformation, science-policy interactions, and effective climate change communication.
During the webinar we'll talk about:
  • Overcoming personal reluctance to have conversations about the climate crisis
  • Strategies for connecting with people who disagree with us
  • How to approach this difficult topic so that you inspire others to take action
I hope you'll join us. Our panelists have a wealth of experience and wisdom to offer so we really think you'll enjoy this great conversation whether you talk to people about the climate crisis for a living or out of personal passion.
WHAT: Live Webinar - We Need To Talk

DATE: Thursday, October 10, 2019

TIME: 11:00 AM PDT / 2:00 PM EDT / 6:00 PM GMT
We are so lucky to have such an engaged and inspiring community. Your participation in these events makes them richer and far more meaningful.

If you think your family and friends might also find this webinar interesting, please spread the word and share this post with them.

In gratitude,

Amy Buringrud
Marketing & Communications Director
Copyright © 2019 Post Carbon Institute, All rights reserved.

Our mailing address is:
Post Carbon Institute
800 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 5
Corvallis, Oregon 97333

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Monday, September 16, 2019

#Economic GREAT #Depression Looms As Real #Returns Hit Historic Lows

"The total return of the economy seems to be too low now. This seems to be why we have problems of many types, ranging from (a) low interest rates to (b) low profitability for energy producers to (c) too much wage disparity"

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Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019


Many people are concerned that we have an oil problem. Or they are concerned about recession and the need to lower interest rates.
As I see the situation, we have a problem of a networked economy that is not functioning well. A big part of this problem is energy-related. Strange as it may seem, energy prices (including oil prices) are too low for producers. If debt levels were growing more rapidly, this low-price problem would go away.
The “standard way” of encouraging more debt-based purchases is by lowering interest rates. But we are running out of room to do this now. We also seem to be running out of economic investments to make with debt. If expected returns on investment were greater, interest rates would be higher.
Without economic investments, demand for commodities of all kinds, including energy products, tends to stay too low. This is the problem we have today. Our debt problem and our energy problem are really different aspects of a networked economy that is no longer generating enough total return. History suggests that these periods tend to end badly.




Monday, July 29, 2019

#ClimateCrisis Could Cause #Global Economic Collapse

"We’re then looking at the banks losing billions upon billions upon billions of dollars here, which is then going to ripple across the globe, including the countries who did what they were supposed to"

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Climate Change Could Crash The Economy

 The United States Federal Reserve is way behind the curve compared to pretty much all other industrialized countries on the planet. And the reason is because our Federal Reserve here in the United States doesn’t quite know yet if they need to, you know, warn bankers and insurers about the dangers of climate change and force them to disclose to all their shareholders and members all of those dangers that climate change poses. But here is the good thing about all of that. The banks already know it. The insurers in this country already know it and both of those groups have actually known about it and have had internal discussions about it for well over a decade. That is how long these individuals and these corporations have been trying to add in climate change when talking about and thinking about and warning about risk because that’s what it’s all about for these industries. For the insurance industry, the risk is obvious, right?

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 You know, we don’t want to insure a bunch of people who live, you know, within 50 feet of a coastline because in 20 years that house might quite literally be underwater. And then we figured if are underwater having to pay out all these claims, hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions of dollars in losses for the insurance industry, which would effectively cripple insurance across the planet. The banks are a little bit trickier, right? You know, what does a bank have to worry about climate change? Well, other than I guess maybe the fact they’re the ones who, uh, you know, gave the mortgage to the people whose home might be underwater and now they can’t get insurance. So we lose that money and there is no house to repossess unless you’ve got a good dive team. But that’s only a small part of it. Think about it this way. When you have industries out there that can either live or die based on whether or not we protect the climate, the entire agricultural industry.