Humanity Needs A Doctor - 40 Billion PLUS????

Humanity Needs A Doctor?

Earth's Current Population Equivalents 
Exceed 40 Billion

For sure the first thing we have to do is get the metrics right so that we can properly diagnose, manage and remedy, if possible, our  population predicament.

To do so, we must first understand that this is not about population numbers at all. Rather it is all about "population equivalents," but so long as the focus remains on person numbers, then we are doomed to head down the wrong path with little hope of finding a cure. In the end, you cannot remove a brain tumor by doing a heart transplant - it is just not going to happen.

There is no responsible economic organization or entity on this planet that does not have an accounting system with metrics to determine, monitor and control its status. So there is no good reason as to why we should not work towards and apply similar concepts for the whole planet as an initial way to get a handle on our planet's overall situation. As a metric - "population equivalents" is a fairly straightforward mathematical concept to apply as the prime unit of measure within this overall planetary accounting system.

Population equivalents should firstly allow us to start comparing apples to apples and not to pears, turnips and potatoes. For example, when the entropic/climate/resource footprint for each developed nation person is estimated to be 34 times larger than a underdeveloped nation's person - this comparison shows a huge gap in the annual-planetary cost  between these two person types to the planet. The implications of this difference needs to be better understood and managed based on objectives. As a medical professional you might start with an old idea and goal like - LONGEVITY!

Now consider the case when 100 million people migrate annually from these underdeveloped nations to developed countries. That migration alone  has the equivalent impact of adding 3.4 billion people to the underdeveloped nations population totals. Or you could also say it is equal to the birth of 3.4 billion people in these underdeveloped countries.

Put in another way - the 1 billion people footprint of developed nations calculates to an equivalent 34 billion people footprint in underdeveloped countries. Thus, the planet's population size using approximate actual numbers could be considered closer to 40 billion people when population equivalent footprint measures are used. (1 billion developed plus, 6 billion underdeveloped people)

BIG number? But now you be the doctor and tell the patient where you think the problem is - Heart or Brain?

So in order to get things right, we first and foremost need to start measuring properly. Moreover, it is a "conceptual technology"  that has been well-developed by the medical profession, among others, over many years. So why not apply it to the most important patient we know?

In short, we need to go beyond checking the patient's brain condition based on its pulse rate and advance ourselves to using proper clinical metrics and devices to better diagnose and remedy our sickly patient. In so doing, we may then stand an improved  chance of extending its life.

It is your call now ... Doctor!

First Financial Insights
December 10, 2013

"Doctors my pulse is fine. But, my head still hurts."

"That's strange... "

Earth's State of Population

Earth’s State of Population:

To diagnose, Doctors Need Metrics

Problem Overview

While I agree with the conclusions of the analysis regarding the unlikelihood of achieving sustainability, it is doing so from a similar but different conceptual framework - call it the eyes of a dispassionate Alien Doctor. Eyes that also conclude that the planet can never achieve any sort of sustainable population level because…

…earthlings are constantly trying to measure yards with inchsticks.

And without effective calibration metrics and devices, it is impossible to accurately diagnose analyze, remedy, manage or resolve any situation. It is the same as having either a thermometer or speedometer device that constantly show inaccurate and random readings – sooner or later, you get yourself into a heap of trouble, including extreme illness or death.

When it comes to state of population measures, there is no generally accepted accurate metric or unit of measure and thus no possible way to calibrate “the state of population.”  (Adding up individual head counts is a largely irrelevant number for management purposes as supported and confirmed by comparative numerical illustrations below.) Again, so would you ever drive a car without knowing its speed? Yet we continue to talk of population control with little or no understanding of what and how to measure its current state. There is no effective unit of relevant measure to be applied by conceptual devices. Making it impossible to diagnose, analyze, project, plan, remedy or create the desired sustainable population state. Without these tools, we are destined to randomly drive not just a car, but an entire planet over the cliff.

Key Assumptions

Here is a simple illustration that acts to explain the calibration and metric issues regarding “the state of population.” First, it is well known that annual oil consumption per capita, in North America, Europe and Japan (Western Complex), averages anywhere from 32 to 36 barrels per capita. While India and China (Eastern Complex), developing countries with over 3 billion in combined populations, annually average a mere one or two barrels per person. 

Thus, using this proxy measure, the ecological and consumption footprint is said and calculated to be 17 times (17:1 ratio) greater for each person living in the Western Complex. Given the known relationships between oil consumption and its environmental effects, this footprint is thus assumed to also share proportionately in the maladies now affecting the planet, in terms of climate, oceans, economics, geopolitical issues and all forms of biodegradations.

Case Study Illustrations

Now here’s the good news, with Doctor Alien’s powers, the Doctor was able to reduce our planet’s population to one billion people in fifty years through birth restrictions, natural attrition and other civil means, without war, conflict or any other sort of adverse human expense. Everyone should be overwhelmed with joy as there are now 6 billion fewer people on the planet and all existence concerns and threats should start  improving. Humanity should now be able to survive for hundreds of more years. One cannot imagine that anybody would be displeased with this great success – the miracle of all times!

Except for our good Doctor Alien. Because the bad news is that the remaining one billion are only Western Complex people and they have also concurrently doubled their footprint over the past fifty years, to a 34:1 ratio*, while they continued pursuing the infinite growth theories prescribed by their trusted neo-classical economic gurus. Life was good. Converting this, however, to the Eastern Complex’s individual footprint from fifty years back, the planet now has an equivalent population of 34 billion Eastern Complex people. It is now severely overcapacity.

* Eastern Complex people, for purposes of this illustration did not increase their footprint over the fifty year period it is considered the base or steady state.

Including a population equivalency of 500 million Western Complex people embedded in today’s 7.1 billion figure – what stands out in this hypothetical experiment, is that even with a dramatic decrease of 6 billion to 1 billion in global population numbers; we end up being worse off by more than doubling in footprint terms. Why? Because the new population consists only of 1 billion Western Complex persons, who were also busy doubling their ecological and consumption footprints, pursuing endless growth, over the past fifty years of global depopulation.

Here’s another way to look at this experiment in fifty years. For a moment, personify yourself as the planet earth and you have to make a decision about what Complex offers you the best opportunity to survive and build a long-term relationship. You have only two choices. You can choose to cohabit with 1 billion people from the Western Complex or 7 billion people from the Eastern Complex who do not pursue an endless growth strategy. Even with its 6 billion more people, for strictly rationale reasons, you choose the Eastern Complex simply because your longevity timeline is extended roughly five-fold (34/7). That is the most logical decision based on the arithmetic outcomes using the equivalent population metrics. On the other hand, if you decided based strictly on the absolute numbers, that 1 billion is lower than 7 billion, then you would have curtailed your life-expectancy by 75%.  (As an aside, most smokers would probably have no problem quitting this addiction when faced with these grim numbers)

Imagine that! For the planet, in this numeric experiment, the 7 Billion low-consuming people are clearly a much better choice, than the 1 billion hyper-consuming addicted people!  Most of us at first blush, would have likely thought otherwise. We did

Preliminary Conclusions

Leading to the conclusion that often-used unit of measure or metric “absolute population by persons “does not in any way calibrate “the state of the population” and it is not a meaningful metric or relevant unit of measure in any way whatsoever in this regard – you just are driving the car without a speedometer and surely heading for a heap of trouble - probably over the cliff. For planetary management purposes the number has limited utility on its own.

Moreover, the much better unit of measure or metric, calibrates “the state of population” based on ‘population equivalents ‘A metric that moves to embedding and calculating the aggregate of a specific population’s individual ecological and consumptive footprints on the planet. Shifting to measuring and managing planetary affairs based on generally accept “population equivalent metrics,” rather than just simple headcounts. is both profound and far-reaching. But, without qualification it is absolutely imperative if one hopes to better manage the population and planet’s resources and conditions towards a mix achieving their optimal longevities.

For as the good Doctor Alien’s final Inter-galactic Committee Report reads:

“…earthlings can no longer afford to be constantly trying to measure yards with inchsticks…”

T.A McNeil

First Financial Insights

October 18,2013

“Without accurate measurements we cannot even effectively diagnose the patient to begin with…”

Inter-Galactic Committee Earth Report*

October, 2013