#OPEC #Oil Production Hitting The Skids

"Hard to say whether Saudi Arabia is following Venezuela's huge production drop as both had notoriously overstated their reserves. The Saudi's conventional fields are very long in the tooth.  Lets not forget MIT's - "Limits to Growth" - research book that predicted a major drop in resources around 2020, and so far their predictions have been fairly accurate, as evidenced by the graph below and the follow-up report 30 years later. It appears we are closing in on a new era - as cheap conventional oil runs dry. What's next is anybody's guess. "

Dr P G Kinesa

October 20, 2019

OPEC September 2019 Oil Production

By Ron Patterson

Data for the OPEC charts below were taken from the October OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

OPEC 14 crude oil production was down1,318,000 barrels per day in September. Most of that decline was due to the Iranian attack on the Saudi oil complex at Abqaiq. ( The question is whether this attack may have been staged to distract attention from the bigger production decline issue and overstated reserves?)

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LIMITS TO GROWTH

KEY CONCLUSIONS

After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team came to the following conclusions:^[1]:23–24

1. Given business as usual, i.e., no changes to historical growth trends, the limits to growth on earth would become evident by 2072, leading to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". This includes the following:
   • Global Industrial output per capita reaches a peak around 2008, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global Food per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global Services per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global population reaches a peak in 2030, followed by a rapid decline
2. Growth trends existing in 1972 could be altered so that sustainable ecological and economic stability could be achieved.
3. The sooner the world's people start striving for the second outcome above, the better the chance of achieving it.

SYNOPSIS 30 YEAR UPDATE

The signs are everywhere around us:

• Sea level has risen 10–20 cm since 1900. Most non-polar glaciers are retreating, and the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing in summer.
• In 1998 more than 45 percent of the globe’s people had to live on incomes averaging $2 a day or less. Meanwhile, the richest one- fifth of the world’s population has 85 percent of the global GNP. And the gap between rich and poor is widening.
• In 2002, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN estimated that 75 percent of the world’s oceanic fisheries were fished at or beyond capacity. The North Atlantic cod fishery, fished sustainably for hundreds of years, has collapsed, and the species may have been pushed to biological extinction.
• The first global assessment of soil loss, based on studies of hundreds of experts, found that 38 percent, or nearly 1.4 billion acres, of currently used agricultural land has been degraded.
• Fifty-four nations experienced declines in per capita GDP for more than a decade during the period 1990–2001.

These are symptoms of a world in overshoot, where we are drawing on the world’s resources faster than they can be restored, and we are releasing wastes and pollutants faster than the Earth can absorb them or render them harmless. They are leading us toward global environmental and economic collapse—but there may still be time to address these problems and soften their impact.

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 FINAL WARNING LIMITS TO GROWTH

SouthEast #Asia Downturn Poses Serious #Economic Risks

"the next downturn will likely be broad-based and not limited to an acute financial crash, as it is set to be “a more typical economic correction at the end of a cycle”."

‘Southeast Asia at risk of faring worse in next downturn than in global financial crisis’

BAIN & CO. ANALYSTS

SINGAPORE — Southeast Asia is more vulnerable to an economic downturn than it was during the global financial crisis one decade ago, according to analysts at global management consultancy Bain & Co.

Greater exposure to a slowing China – and other structural economic shifts – have left most Asean markets in a more perilous position than before, according to a report released on Friday.

Half of the region’s economies have fallen into a current account deficit as exports tumbled, while Vietnam and the Philippines were the only two countries not to post lower growth in 2018.

The commodities sector will not be as able to cushion the economic blow, as prices and sales are both down, while corporate and household debt have blown past 2008 and 2009 levels to reach the private-sector leverage of more developed markets such as the United States.

“The region’s strong economic growth does not, in fact, shelter it from harm should other parts of the world sink into a downturn or even a recession,” said the report.

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ASIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

#Week4Future: Global #Climate #Strike Week - @postcarbon

At this unprecedented pivital juncture in human history First Financial Insights is pleased to annouce its support and endorsement of the beliefs, policies and actions of:

Post Carbon Institute

Our Strategy

Post Carbon Institute provides individuals and communities with the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated ecological, economic, energy, and equity crises of the 21st century. We help build resilience to withstand these crises, and support social and cultural change to make society more ready to take decisive and appropriate action. Specifically, we:

• Grow collective understanding of our energy reality, and the need for both conservation and appropriate, community-centric renewable energy.
• Promote community resilience as the best way to build thriving, relocalized neighborhoods, towns, and cities capable of withstanding coming disruptions.
• Support a growing movement of innovators and early adopters who can develop best practices and provide leadership both now and during future crises.

"But even if hope has to be held lightly in the steely-eyed recognition of what we face, we still must take action. Much of that action comes back to our own backyards."

A sea change moment?

Asher Miller

September 19, 2019

Tomorrow begins Global Climate Strike Week, led by young people to demand urgent action to address the climate emergency. What many hope will be a sea change moment in the struggle to mobilize a real response to this existential threat had a humble start a year ago when a young Swedish student, Greta Thunberg, began spending her Fridays protesting in front of the Swedish Parliament. Inspired by Greta’s example—and her blunt, uncompromising stance—millions of students have since joined her in the “Fridays for the Future” movement. This week is an opportunity for the rest of us to participate.

I will be out on the streets tomorrow and the following Friday in my hometown, and I’ll be joining a number of other activities planned locally over the coming week. PCI is supporting our staff to actively participate in the various communities where they live. We’d like to encourage you to do the same. Visit the Climate Strike website to find activities near you.

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The Most Important Speech Ever

#CLIMATECRISIS: IMPORTANT #WEBINAR INVITATION FROM THE POST #CARBON INSTITUTE

Hello Everyone, I work on issues surrounding the climate crisis nearly every day, but I still struggle to talk about the magnitude of the situation with my family and friends. Finding the right approach to these conversations—so we can keep talking even when we disagree or leave the conversation feeling empowered rather than disheartened—can be truly challenging. Which is why I'm so excited about our live webinar with Karin Kirk and Susanne Moser, We Need to Talk: How to have difficult conversations about the climate crisis. Karin Kirk has taught courses about climate change, overseen energy conservation projects, worked on national-scale climate education efforts, and measured the effectiveness of NOAA's Climate.gov website. While a scientist by training, Karin is particularly intrigued by the intersection of science and the human dimension. Susanne Moser is a geographer who works nationally and internationally as an independent scholar and consultant from a base in western Massachusetts. Her work with government agencies, non-profits, foundations, and other researchers and consultants focuses on adaptation to climate change, resilience, transformation, science-policy interactions, and effective climate change communication. During the webinar we'll talk about: Overcoming personal reluctance to have conversations about the climate crisis Strategies for connecting with people who disagree with us How to approach this difficult topic so that you inspire others to take action I hope you'll join us. Our panelists have a wealth of experience and wisdom to offer so we really think you'll enjoy this great conversation whether you talk to people about the climate crisis for a living or out of personal passion. WHAT: Live Webinar - We Need To Talk DATE: Thursday, October 10, 2019 TIME: 11:00 AM PDT / 2:00 PM EDT / 6:00 PM GMT GET YOUR TICKETS TODAY We are so lucky to have such an engaged and inspiring community. Your participation in these events makes them richer and far more meaningful. If you think your family and friends might also find this webinar interesting, please spread the word and share this post with them. In gratitude, Amy Buringrud Marketing & Communications Director Copyright © 2019 Post Carbon Institute, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: Post Carbon Institute 800 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 5 Corvallis, Oregon 97333 Add us to your address book

#Economic GREAT #Depression Looms As Real #Returns Hit Historic Lows

"The total return of the economy seems to be too low now. This seems to be why we have problems of many types, ranging from (a) low interest rates to (b) low profitability for energy producers to (c) too much wage disparity"

Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019

By Gail Tverberg

Many people are concerned that we have an oil problem. Or they are concerned about recession and the need to lower interest rates.

As I see the situation, we have a problem of a networked economy that is not functioning well. A big part of this problem is energy-related. Strange as it may seem, energy prices (including oil prices) are too low for producers. If debt levels were growing more rapidly, this low-price problem would go away.

The “standard way” of encouraging more debt-based purchases is by lowering interest rates. But we are running out of room to do this now. We also seem to be running out of economic investments to make with debt. If expected returns on investment were greater, interest rates would be higher.

Without economic investments, demand for commodities of all kinds, including energy products, tends to stay too low. This is the problem we have today. Our debt problem and our energy problem are really different aspects of a networked economy that is no longer generating enough total return. History suggests that these periods tend to end badly.

THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD!

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REVISIT GREAT DEPRESSION CAUSES

#ClimateCrisis Could Cause #Global Economic Collapse

"We’re then looking at the banks losing billions upon billions upon billions of dollars here, which is then going to ripple across the globe, including the countries who did what they were supposed to"

 

Climate Change Could Crash The Economy

 The United States Federal Reserve is way behind the curve compared to pretty much all other industrialized countries on the planet. And the reason is because our Federal Reserve here in the United States doesn’t quite know yet if they need to, you know, warn bankers and insurers about the dangers of climate change and force them to disclose to all their shareholders and members all of those dangers that climate change poses. But here is the good thing about all of that. The banks already know it. The insurers in this country already know it and both of those groups have actually known about it and have had internal discussions about it for well over a decade. That is how long these individuals and these corporations have been trying to add in climate change when talking about and thinking about and warning about risk because that’s what it’s all about for these industries. For the insurance industry, the risk is obvious, right?

 

 You know, we don’t want to insure a bunch of people who live, you know, within 50 feet of a coastline because in 20 years that house might quite literally be underwater. And then we figured if are underwater having to pay out all these claims, hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions of dollars in losses for the insurance industry, which would effectively cripple insurance across the planet. The banks are a little bit trickier, right? You know, what does a bank have to worry about climate change? Well, other than I guess maybe the fact they’re the ones who, uh, you know, gave the mortgage to the people whose home might be underwater and now they can’t get insurance. So we lose that money and there is no house to repossess unless you’ve got a good dive team. But that’s only a small part of it. Think about it this way. When you have industries out there that can either live or die based on whether or not we protect the climate, the entire agricultural industry.

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WHAT ARE THE POSSIBILITIES?

#ALERT: #Economy Heading Towards Massive #OMG Train Wreck

“I think (investments) that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant.”

 Ray Dalio

 

We’ve Arrived At The End Of The Road 

by Adam Taggart

When Richard Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971, fully severing the US dollar from its gold standard, the Federal Reserve and other world central banks found themselves liberated. No longer was their ability to provide liquidity constrained by the physical limitations of the gold supply.

The Fed started intervening more and more during times of slowing growth to goose the economy back to vigor. Cheered and further egged on by politicians happy for easy solutions and desperate to avoid having to make tough calls, central banks have been increasingly willing to provide liquidity in good times and bad.

Akin to removing the limit on a teenager’s credit card, with access to so much cheap money, the US went on a debt bender. One that has lasted for nearly half a century:

#OMG

 

 

Here we stand today with the national debt at over $22 trillion, total US debt outstanding of $70 trillion (shown in the above chart), and unfunded national liabilities of over $200 trillion. And we add to this every year with an annual deficit now exceeding $1 trillion.

This gigantic accretion of debt will never be repaid. And as the pile grows higher, the burden of servicing it — even at today’s historically low interest rates — is placing an increasingly heavy drag on economic growth.

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WHAT ME WORRY?

 

#Economic #Abstractions No Longer #Stimulate REAL Physical #Economy

"History shows that the collapse of economies is very common. Collectively, we have closed our eyes to this possibility ever happening to the world economy in the modern era. If the issue with collapsing demand causing ever-lower energy prices is as severe as my analysis indicates, perhaps we should be examining this scenario more closely."

EXPONENTIALS TELL THE FUTURE

Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems

By Gail Tverberg

Economists tell us that within the economy there is a lot of substitutability, and they are correct. However, there are a couple of not-so-minor details that they overlook:

• There is no substitute for energy. It is possible to harness energy from another source, or to make a particular object run more efficiently, but the laws of physics prevent us from substituting something else for energy. Energy is required whenever physical changes are made, such as when an object is moved, or a material is heated, or electricity is produced.
• Supplemental energy leverages human energy. The reason why the human population is as high as it is today is because pre-humans long ago started learning how to leverage their human energy (available from digesting food) with energy from other sources. Energy from burning biomass was first used over one million years ago. Other types of energy, such as harnessing the energy of animals and capturing wind energy with sails of boats, began to be used later. If we cut back on our total energy consumption in any material way, humans will lose their advantage over other species. Population will likely plummet because of epidemics and fighting over scarce resources.

Many people appear to believe that stimulus programs by governments and central banks can substitute for growth in energy consumption. Others are convinced that efficiency gains can substitute for growing energy consumption. My analysis indicates that workarounds, in the aggregate, don’t keep energy prices high enough for energy producers. Oil prices are at risk, but so are coal and natural gas prices. We end up with a different energy problem than most have expected: energy prices that remain too low for producers. Such a problem can have severe consequences.

Let’s look at a few of the issues involved:

[1] Despite all of the progress being made in reducing birth rates around the globe, the world’s population continues to grow, year after year.

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