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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

The Fed Setting Up For A U.S. Dollar Collapse If No June Rate Hike


Is US Dollar Crash Possible?


The U.S. dollar index has been on the rise thanks to Fed officials talking up rate hikes.
Propping up the U.S. dollar by the Fed is referred to as a “Fed Dollar Put”.
The Fed may have already painted themselves into a corner about rate hikes.
A no June rate hike decision may cause a dollar collapse as speculators pile onto short positions.
The U.S. dollar index, or DXY, a weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, has bounced 3.72% since its 15-month low on May 3, when Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and his San Francisco Fed colleague John Williams told reporters that U.S. financial markets may be underestimating the odds of a central bank rate increase at the June 14-15 Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meeting.

Monday, May 23, 2016

Financial Hurricane Approaching Landfall?

We're in the Eye of a Global Financial Hurricane

Image result for crazy pundits cartoons

The only "growth" we're experiencing are the financial cancers of systemic risk and financialization's soaring wealth/income inequality.
The Keynesian gods have failed, and as a result we're in the eye of a global financial hurricane.
The Keynesian god of borrowing from the future to fund today's consumption has failed.
The Keynesian god of monetary stimulus / financialization has failed.
Every major central bank and state worships these Keynesian idols:
1. Growth. (Never mind the cost or what kind of growth--all growth is good, even the financial equivalent of aggressive cancer).
2. Borrowing from the future to fund today's keg party, worthless college diploma, particle board bookcase, stock buy-back, etc. (oops, I mean "investment")--a.k.a.deficit spending which is a polite way of saying this unsavory truth: stealing from our children and grandchildren to fund our lifestyles today.
3. Monetary stimulus / financialization. If private investment sags (because there are few attractive investments at today's nosebleed valuations and few attractive investments in a global economy burdened with massive over-production and over-capacity), drop interest rates to zero (or below zero) to "stimulate" new borrowing... for whatever: global carry trades, bat guano derivatives, etc.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

EYE on the World - A World of Troubles


Climate Impacting Troubled Global State of Affairs 

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NOT GOOD: Global Heat Wave Hits Fourth Record
-Breaking Month

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A Song Of Fire And No Ice: We Just Had Our Fourth Record-Breaking Hottest Month In A Row This Year

A record fire-storm in Canada fueled by record warmth. Record ice-melt in Greenland and the Arctic sea, driven by off-the-charts warmth in the far north. And, NASA reported Friday, we’ve just been through the hottest April and the hottest January-April on record — by far.
Last month smashed the record for hottest April, as this chart of NASA data (via Rahmstorf) above shows:

Unprecedented Collapse of 
Venezuela Imminent

Political and financial crisis deepens with pressure on president Nicolas Maduro to stand down

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Venezuela on the brink of collapse
The political and economic crisis in Venezuela is continuing to deepen, with protesters taking to the streets of Caracas to demand that socialist president Nicolas Maduro resign.
"A large, seemingly wealthy, apparently modern and resource-rich country is on the brink of collapse, financial default and, potentially, a humanitarian crisis," says the Financial Times.

Yemen: Another Country Facing Starvation

  Geo-Political Climate News

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  • The food security and nutrition situation in Yemen will turn into a humanitarian disaster unless urgent funding is accessible for FAO to timely deliver the inputs needed to: meet the April/May cereal and vegetable planting season and the summer fishing season; and vaccinate livestock in time for winter.

  • Real 
    Economy Tanking BIG Time

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  • Undeniable Evidence That The Real Economy Is Already In Recession Mode

  • You are about to see a chart that is undeniable evidence that we have already entered a major economic slowdown.  In the “real economy”, stuff is bought and sold and shipped around the country by trucks, railroads and planes.  When more stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is growing, and when less stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is shrinking. 

  • Financial Troubles Stir Saudi Arabia

  • Saudi Arabia’s Credit Rating Lowered  

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  • While strong when compared with other sovereign credit ratings, Saudi Arabia’s fiscal health remains under threat from low oil prices, Moody’s said. Moody’s Investors Service said the drop in crude oil prices, off more than 50 percent since the middle of 2014, has undermined the economy and finances for Saudi Arabia. As a result, the long-term rating for the country was lowered 

"Where Have All the Bees Gone?"

Beekeepers Lost 44 Percent of Bees in 2015-16

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Summer losses rival winter losses for the second year running

Beekeepers across the United States lost 44 percent of their honey bee colonies during the year spanning April 2015 to April 2016, according to the latest preliminary results of an annual nationwide survey. Rates of both winter loss and summer loss—and consequently, total annual losses—worsened compared with last year. This marks the second consecutive survey year that summer loss rates rivaled winter loss rates. 

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Friday, May 20, 2016

Real #Economy Tanking BIG Time

Undeniable Evidence That The Real Economy Is Already In Recession Mode

You are about to see a chart that is undeniable evidence that we have already entered a major economic slowdown.  In the “real economy”, stuff is bought and sold and shipped around the country by trucks, railroads and planes.  When more stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is growing, and when less stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is shrinking.  I know that might sound really basic, but I want everyone to be on the same page as we proceed in this article.  Just because stock prices are artificially high right now does not mean that the U.S. economy is in good shape.  In fact, there was a stock rally at this exact time of the year in 2008 even though the underlying economic fundamentals were rapidly deteriorating.  We all remember what happened later that year, so we should not exactly be rejoicing that precisely the same pattern that we witnessed in 2008 is happening again right in front of our eyes.

Thursday, May 19, 2016

George #Sorros Is Dumping His Equities

George Soros Sells Stocks, Buys More Gold, Why Investors Should Care 

Legendary investor George Soros sold 37% of his long stock exposure last quarter and bought a lot more gold (and gold stocks).

Soros, who made his fortune over the last few decades from his macro views on capital markets, is now worried about the global economy and is bullish on gold. Earlier this year, Soros publicly made the case that China is in trouble and it reminds him of the U.S. in 2007-early 2008- before the big 2008 financial crisis. When big legendary investors act, history shows us, it is wise to listen.

Here’s a brief history on Soros.

The Hungarian-American investor and philanthropist, 85, is chairman of Soros Fund Management, a private family office  he created about five years ago after closing his hedge fund and returning capital to his investors. Soros is best known as “The Man Who Broke the Bank of England” because he shorted $10 billion worth of British pounds, making him a profit of $1 billion during the 1992 Black Wednesday UK currency crisis.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Warnings Say Meltdown Is Imminent

Multiple Collapse Triggers Everywhere-V the Guerrilla Economist 

“V” the “Guerrilla Economist” fears another global financial collapse “every day and every night.” “V” explains, “Economically speaking . . . What I see is it’s not one event. There are multiple triggers everywhere. 

 If Deutsche Bank goes belly up tonight . . . that could send a cascade of bank failures throughout the euro zone, which will blow back right here through London to New York, and we will be in the absolute crap storm.  We will be in the middle of it.  It could happen at any time.  If the Saudis decide to go nuts and decide to dump $750 billion . . . if they start dumping U.S. Treasuries, it can cause a run on the bond market.  It could cause a massive fissure and a massive blow back.  Then, you have what’s going on with derivative interest rate swaps, which are also tied into bonds, which are also tied into the repurchasing markets.  All these things can bring pressure, and all you are seeing are nothing but triggers everywhere.  So, Donald Trump is right.  We could be in a financial meltdown.  It amazes me that the media would rather question him about Trump steaks or Trump University or why his clothing is being pulled out of Macy’s versus asking Trump about him saying the economy can go belly up, and we can be in a financial meltdown. 

 Nobody even brings that up.  That’s unbelievable.”

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

#Trump - Really, Who Is This Guy?

Who Is This Guy?’ In Connected Political World, Few Know Donald Trump 

WASHINGTON — Senator Lamar Alexander has run in elite national political circles for decades, sought the presidency twice and served as governor of Tennessee, cabinet secretary and university president. He does not know Donald J. Trump.
“Never met him,” said Mr. Alexander, a Tennessee Republican now in his third term.
That disconnect helps explain the awkward courtship ritual transpiring between Republicans in Washington and their party’s presumed presidential nominee: Most of them have no real clue about the man other than what they have read, seen on cable news or absorbed from watching his reality TV show, “The Apprentice.”
“It is hard to trust someone until you know them,” Mr. Alexander noted. “And it is hard to know someone until you meet them.”
It is not just lawmakers. Top representatives of the K Street lobbying and strategic communications world say they are in the same boat.
The New York Times

Monday, May 16, 2016

MONEY: Fact or Fiction?

Uncomfortable Truths About Banking and Money

Most people like their truth palatable, easy to digest, and believable.  Unfortunately for our emotional needs, some truths are uncomfortable, unsettling, and difficult.
Regarding the United States, the U.K., Europe, and Japan IT IS COMFORTING TO BELIEVE:
  • Debt has increased exponentially for decades, and in the case of the US, for over 100 years. It has worked so far, so we want to believe it will continue for the foreseeable future.
  • Our governments act as if they believe we can borrow ourselves out of debt, spend our way into prosperity, and pretend and extend indefinitely.
  • Every major country has a central bank, so it is comforting to believe they are needed.
  • It is comforting to believe that gold is unnecessary. As per Warren Buffett, we dig it from the ground, and then store it in a vault, where it sits.
These may be common and comfortable beliefs but they are all incorrect, and will be proven false in coming years.
In the US, national debt has increased from about $3 billion in 1913 to over 
Read More

Friday, May 6, 2016

Venezuela - What a Disaster!

Prepare for the worst: Venezuela is heading toward complete disaster
THE POLITICAL drama in Venezuela, where a populist, authoritarian government is attempting to cling to power despite losing a legislative election by a landslide, tends to obscure a deeper crisis. Though it is awash in oil, the country of 30 million people is facing an economic collapse and a humanitarian disaster.
Venezuela already suffers from the world’s highest inflation rate — expected to rise from 275 percent to 720 percent this year — one of its higher murder rates and pervasive shortages of consumer goods, ranging from car parts to toilet paper. Power outages and the lack of raw materials are forcing surviving factories and shops to close or limit opening hours. According to a local surveycited by the Economist, the poverty rate is 76 percent, compared with 55 percent when Hugo Ch├ívez, the late founder of the regime, took power in 1999.