Earth’s
State of Population:
To diagnose, Doctors Need Metrics
Problem Overview
While I agree with the conclusions
of the analysis regarding the unlikelihood of achieving sustainability, it is doing so from a similar but different conceptual
framework - call it the eyes of a dispassionate Alien Doctor. Eyes that also conclude that the planet can never
achieve any sort of sustainable population level because…
…earthlings
are constantly trying to measure yards with inchsticks.
And without effective calibration metrics and devices,
it is impossible to accurately diagnose analyze, remedy, manage or resolve any
situation. It is the same as having either a thermometer or speedometer device that
constantly show inaccurate and random readings – sooner or later, you get
yourself into a heap of trouble, including extreme illness or death.
When it comes to state of population measures,
there is no generally accepted accurate metric or unit of measure and thus no
possible way to calibrate “the state of
population.” (Adding up individual head
counts is a largely irrelevant number for management purposes as supported and
confirmed by comparative numerical illustrations below.) Again, so would you
ever drive a car without knowing its speed? Yet we continue to talk of
population control with little or no understanding of what and how to measure
its current state. There is no effective unit of relevant measure to be applied
by conceptual devices. Making it impossible to diagnose, analyze, project,
plan, remedy or create the desired sustainable population state. Without these
tools, we are destined to randomly drive not just a car, but an entire planet over
the cliff.
Key Assumptions
Here is a simple illustration that acts to explain
the calibration and metric issues regarding “the state of population.” First, it is well known that annual oil consumption
per capita, in North America, Europe and Japan (Western Complex), averages anywhere from 32 to 36 barrels per
capita. While India and China (Eastern
Complex), developing countries with over 3 billion in combined populations,
annually average a mere one or two barrels per person.
Thus, using this proxy
measure, the ecological and consumption footprint is said and calculated to be 17
times (17:1 ratio) greater for each
person living in the Western Complex. Given the known relationships between oil
consumption and its environmental effects, this footprint is thus assumed to
also share proportionately in the maladies now affecting the planet, in terms
of climate, oceans, economics, geopolitical issues and all forms of
biodegradations.
Case Study Illustrations
Now here’s the good news, with Doctor Alien’s
powers, the Doctor was able to reduce our planet’s population to one billion
people in fifty years through birth restrictions, natural attrition and other
civil means, without war, conflict or any other sort of adverse human expense.
Everyone should be overwhelmed with joy as there are now 6 billion fewer people
on the planet and all existence concerns and threats should start improving. Humanity should now be able to survive
for hundreds of more years. One cannot imagine that anybody would be displeased
with this great success – the miracle of all times!
Except for our good Doctor Alien. Because the
bad news is that the remaining one billion are only Western Complex people and
they have also concurrently doubled their footprint over the past fifty years,
to a 34:1 ratio*, while they
continued pursuing the infinite growth
theories prescribed by their trusted neo-classical economic gurus. Life was
good. Converting this, however, to the Eastern Complex’s individual footprint
from fifty years back, the planet now has an equivalent population of 34 billion
Eastern Complex people. It is now severely overcapacity.
*
Eastern
Complex people, for purposes of this illustration did not increase their
footprint over the fifty year period it is considered the base or steady state.
Including a population equivalency of 500
million Western Complex people embedded in today’s 7.1 billion figure – what
stands out in this hypothetical experiment, is that even with a dramatic
decrease of 6 billion to 1 billion in global population numbers; we
end up being worse off by more than doubling in footprint terms. Why? Because
the new population consists only of 1 billion Western Complex persons, who were
also busy doubling their ecological and consumption footprints, pursuing
endless growth, over the past fifty years of global depopulation.
Here’s another way to look at this experiment
in fifty years. For a moment, personify yourself as the planet earth and you
have to make a decision about what Complex offers you the best opportunity to survive
and build a long-term relationship. You have only two choices. You can choose
to cohabit with 1 billion people from the Western Complex or 7 billion people
from the Eastern Complex who do not pursue an endless growth strategy. Even
with its 6 billion more people, for strictly rationale reasons, you choose the
Eastern Complex simply because your longevity timeline is extended roughly five-fold
(34/7). That is the most logical decision based on the arithmetic outcomes
using the equivalent population metrics. On the other hand, if you decided
based strictly on the absolute numbers, that 1 billion is lower than 7 billion,
then you would have curtailed your life-expectancy by 75%. (As an aside, most smokers would probably
have no problem quitting this addiction when faced with these grim numbers)
Imagine that! For the planet, in this numeric
experiment, the 7 Billion low-consuming people are clearly a much better choice,
than the 1 billion hyper-consuming addicted people! Most of us at first blush, would have likely
thought otherwise. We did
Preliminary Conclusions
Leading
to the conclusion that often-used unit of measure or metric “absolute
population by persons “does not in any way calibrate “the state of
the population” and it is not a meaningful metric or relevant unit of measure
in any way whatsoever in this regard – you just are driving the car
without a speedometer and surely heading for a heap of trouble -
probably over the cliff. For planetary management purposes the number has
limited utility on its own.
Moreover, the much better unit of measure or
metric, calibrates “the state of population” based on ‘population equivalents ‘A
metric that moves to embedding and calculating the aggregate of a specific population’s
individual ecological and consumptive footprints on the planet. Shifting to
measuring and managing planetary affairs based on generally accept “population
equivalent metrics,” rather than just simple headcounts. is both profound
and far-reaching. But, without qualification it is absolutely imperative if one
hopes to better manage the population and planet’s resources and conditions
towards a mix achieving their optimal longevities.
For as the good Doctor Alien’s final Inter-galactic
Committee Report reads:
“…earthlings
can no longer afford to be constantly trying to measure yards with inchsticks…”
T.A McNeil
First Financial Insights
October 18,2013
“Without accurate measurements we cannot even effectively
diagnose the patient to begin with…”
Inter-Galactic
Committee Earth Report*
October,
2013
