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Showing posts with label russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label russia. Show all posts

Saturday, March 5, 2016

EYE on the World - North Korea War Signals Rattles West

 

Will South Korea Have to Bomb the North, Eventually?






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2016 Cuban Missile Crisis?


 This situation has not garnered the attention it deserves in the press nor by the markets. Should tensions escalate to the point of causing a nuclear event then such an engagement could lead to wider actions  bringing  the involvement of respective allies and the bigger powers. 

Even the limited use of nuclear weapons places the world in greater peril than most appreciate or know at first glance. Why? Russia operates a mechanized nuclear defence program that is often termed and referred to as  " the dead-hand system" because the missile-launch- order can  be triggered when its sensors determine that the radioactivity in the atmosphere is beyond preset acceptable levels. Breaching of these tests causes the system to conclude and assume that a nuclear attack is being carried out against their nation and it will then automatically order the launch of Russian missiles aimed at predetermined targets. 

There is no human involvement.  

 Originally the system was designed to provide for an immediate  retaliatory strike in the event that  the leadership in the Kremlin was destroyed 
by a first strike by an aggressor,

and thus decapitating the decision-making powers ability to respond.  The premise of the system embraces the cold war  assumption  that the threat of mutual annihilation would deter  the superpowers, at the time, from ever entering into any confrontations using nuclear weapons.

However, today  this old and perhaps antiquated system could inadvertently  launch  missiles because the sensors detect the radiation from a much smaller nuclear conflict. Right now, as long as tensions remain high in North Korea there is a great danger that aggressions could expand rapidly into the global theatre. Such a possibility, to our knowledge has not been experienced since the Cuban Missile Crisis, in 1962, when the world was was gripped by fear and  just seconds away from a global nuclear war that could have wiped out all of humanity in mere days.

 In light of the concerns mentioned, and their potential consequences and devastation  - this situation is to be given the highest priority and attention in the days and weeks ahead. It is also noted that certain  US Presidential candidates indicated, in February, that they would approve a preemptive strike against North Korea - that does not sound like such a  good idea should it also lead to those same sensors detecting and acting upon excessive radioactivity in the atmosphere. Moreover, leadership in North Korea is far from stable or sensible - you have a child holding a loaded gun.      

In the last analysis, the world again is walking on eggshells; one misstep having frightening ramifications 



Panic Grows as Moody's Cuts China's Rating Outlook


China  Another  Enron?

Really, when you think about it , what is  the  difference between the two, when they both  are great benefactors of ghosts and zombies and then go on to apply the most opaque and misleading accounting practises, at all levels of organization with utter impunity? No wonder investors and creditors are heading for the hills. To answer the question: there is no difference - and the results are sure to be  the same.

Now  that brings up the next question  regarding Bernie Madoff...







Methane Time Bomb Closer Than Feared?


The Big Question
​  

Any day now? Any moment? But at how many parts per billion do we actually  have the same atmospheric conditions as the Permian extinction? Once we know that  - then with a little math we could probably  determine the next poorly planned and unfortunate   event in  the planet's history.  

Remember too, that a failure to plan - is a plan to fail!





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Friday, October 18, 2013

HUMANITY'S TOP PRIORITIES

Humanity’s

Top Priorities





Rule #1: Top priorities are non-linear


A few days back a number of colleagues were discussing whether over-population or climate change should have a greater priority. One person stated that such a debate was meaningless, as they both must be addressed in equal form and substance. I agreed, but took it all one step further. Writing that there are multiple threats facing humanity that need to be dealt with concurrently and equally. As each threat entails unknown, unknowns which could bring about unspeakable events. Our fragility has never been so complex and exposed. 
   
 Terry



Comments: October 17, 2013


I concur and believe there is no sense debating what problem has the greatest priority, as there are just too many unknown, unknowns. Four practical concerns come readily to mind. One, the other reactors at Fukushima could blow sky-high at any moment with undefinable outcomes.Two, all pollinating bugs could disappear everywhere, in short order; seriously disrupting global food chains.Three, biochemical events could rapidly accelerate the acidification of the Oceans in just months - then all bets are off. Four, a limited nuclear outburst in the Middle East could trigger Russia's automated and antiquated "dead-hand launch system" that effects an all-out strike on Western targets.

Notably, these concerns do not include more popular discussion topics such as; financial collapse, climate change, and overpopulation. Suggesting that we face multiple issues whose ranking values in terms of priority are hidden. Leading one to assert that the actual problem is that there is no complete solution because humanity ultimately faces the universal constraints of entropy and infinity. To my knowledge, applied physics has not discovered any devices or means that would allow us to leap over these barriers. 

It is then paradoxical that there is no solution, which in and of itself is the solution.    

Moreover, facing the governing laws of physics and the vast number of unknown, unknowns it seems debating, discoursing or conversing about prioritising these concerns would bear little fruit as there are no absolute metrics that could be applied to objectively weight these concerns. Even if that were possible, there is always the possibility that some other concern would jump onto the agenda, seemingly out of the blue  - making all preceding concerns and debates completely irrelevant. 

So , that's why I agree with you and conclude that we'll just have deal with them all concurrently, notwithstanding what gets in our way.

Sincerely,

T.A McNeil
First Financial Insights
October 17, 2013    


Friday, August 2, 2013

GLASNOST and Perestroika? The Paul Krugman Blog - CHAOS LOOMS





Ron, do you remember that remark about the wall ...

GLASNOST and Perestroika? The Paul Krugman Blog - CHAOS LOOMS

The biggest issue. - Paul Krugman, August 1,2013 


One wonders if Americans could actually learn something from the Russians and turn their minds to revitalizing a structure that was designed more than 230 years ago and for which there is growing evidence that it is simply running out of gas - needing a solid update to better reflect the practical needs of the times.

Sadly, China (the competition?) is almost looking to be a structural role model for efficiency of governance and business. At the very least it has conceptual strengths that could be stolen to build better "Comparative Advantages".  A better mousetrap? Centralist approaches and devices such as "A National Business Strategy, Strategic Business Board or Sovereign Funds" seemly have value, that could be studied for application - and who cares what we call its political origins, when it cures a potentially terminal disease?

So welcoming a home-grown “Glasnost" and even combining the morale cleansing of "Perestroika are ideas, suitably re-branded for local markets , that could bring about NOTIONS for remedies and plans to overcome the growing "competitive disadvantage" of stuttering random-walk governance

There are plenty of good folks around to move the ball forward; Mr. Krugman and Mr. Chomsky are top of mind; who could lend a valued hand. Then there is this other experienced chap named Gorby, who may welcome a call for guidance. Imagine that!

Oh well, no harm in wondering...

T. A. McNeil
First Financial Insights

August 1, 2013


WHAT WOULD THEY THINK TODAY?

Tom, what if we call this idea something like Glasnost?





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