NOW YOU ARE IN NEW YORK

EMPIRE STATE OF MIND

For New Yorkers..

Touch the love

Then you know our hearts..

Concrete jungles where dreams are made from

Just a pocket full of dreams

NEW YORK

"where eternities meet eternities"

Jim Rogers,Chinese Communist Party, Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff

Investors' Insights:

Week Ending January 27, 2013 

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS

"Investors' Insights"

Jim Rogers : Avoid going into Debt

Yes true, but the real important message is avoid wasting money or precious resources foolishly. This is what the Chinese do under the guise of state capitalism. That is why just like the Soviet system it will one day fall apart due to a lack of accountability, corruption and rabid cronyism. Expect another cultural revolution soon with a new group of animals running the farm.

Here's a great video on China's ghost cities that demonstrate the point that you may not be able to put enough lipstick on this pig to overcome the certain economic disaster that lies ahead.  Do the math. Most folks work for less than a dollar an hour: how many do they need to buy a $250,000 condo in Ghost Town? The results alone tell you there is something perversely inefficient about the whole economic system.

We are just staying away from this puppy caring less about their reported numbers - there's something in the air- Glasnost?

First Financial Insights

January 24, 2013

The party tables "GLASNOST" for voting?

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Video Interview (CNN Money)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Gl...

Economist or Opera singer? You decide.

We have...

First Financial Insights

January 23, 2013

Now change your pitch(sic), Nouriel.

Peter Schiff Blog: Video: Debating Capitalism: 

Peter Schiff`s comments on the economy, stock markets, politics and gold. Schiff is the renowned writer of the bestseller Crash Proof: Ho...

Three points we draw to your attention  when watching this show:

Talking heads - mostly meaningless gibberish and nonsense

Interest rate increases are inevitable ;collapsing asset values, banks. and economy

They ignore physical realities of shrinking pie fpr larger populations: their abstract remedies cannot enlarge the real pie.

Read our new book: Dummies Guide to Window Jumping

First Financial Insights

January 22, 2013

Peter, where's my guide?

Jim Rogers Video Interview - Fox Business News

Watch this Fox News video with Jim. Four major points here we concur with. There will be much more turmoil in the currency markets this year and many more as the abstractionist and neo-classical theories fall apart when reality sets in. Scarcer resources. Second, US bonds, particularly 30 year issues, are absurdly low, and when the dam breaks due to the pent up hyper-inflation caused by scarcer raw material inputs - these bond prices will collapse dramatically. Good shorts, but it is all about timing.

Buying Gold, Silver and other precious metals on big dips is sensible, as when the fiat currencies are debased due to inflation and the collapse in bonds, they should come out as winners by default. In the end, there is just nowhere else to go. 

Lastly, buy a farm. For if markets, economies, and societies self-destruct, then at least you have a chance of eating and living through the adversity. Don't forget to buy and learn how to drive a tractor - getting to be a popular trend in Greece nowadays. Hint, hint.

First Financial Insights

January 20, 2013 

Next year's BMW?

The New York Times -The Fog of Economics

The New York Times

ROOM For DEBATE

Human Longevity or Unbridled Growth - The Fog of Economics



Posted Facebook, The New York Times, Room for Debate - January 22, 2013

The Fog of War. Long after the Viet Nam war ended, Robert S.  McNamara, in his reflective book, lamented about the grave intellectual mistakes made by the country’s brightest and best. Many lessons were defined, but ultimately all roads lead to shortcomings in the way our cognitions work and understand reality. Unfortunately they were not recognized before these failings caused thousands of unneeded deaths and injuries to Americans and many others abroad. 

Today. Today, we face a more profounder and critical issue. Should we not take to heart, the underlying lessons conveyed by Robert McNamara, regarding the limitations existing in our cognitive functions – then the human costs will go beyond thousands, and even millions. In fact, the very existence of our species is now a concern that can no longer be washed away by rhetorical denials. For it is imminent, without change.

So the fogs we face today are not just in war, but they clutter the other areas of concern that have guided us to our present predicament; namely, the conventional beliefs of economics and theology. In both cases, their intentions share a desire to do good, but also share the fundamental flaw of promoting unbridled growth in population and human activity, that leads to a head-on collision with existential physics and exponential mathematics. Our finite planet cannot accommodate such algebra, and such beliefs are doomed to bring about a biblical die-off of our species, when the abstracts of these positive-sum games breach the concrete realities of the negative-sum game that defines our existence.

A few months ago I wrote and emailed Mr. Paul Krugman, specifically dealing with the concerns pertaining to economics, and the inability of the brightest and best of this field, to reconcile their beliefs with the physical certitudes of finite resources, expanding populations, climatic chaos and hard exponential mathematics. While Mr. Krugman did not respond; others did, including, Al Bartlett, Professor Emeritus, Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder, who fully supported and commended its content. I also believe many others who read this letter under the blog titled, “InvisibleGenocide; Fallacy of Economic Growth,” would also provide similar support.  And moreover, it is a genocide that may be closer than we think; one that may even confront the current generation in their lifetime. The Fog of Economics?

How close is it? While peak everything is certainly upon us, it is also much more than oil and the other fossil fuels. As Christopher O. Clugston sets out in his recently published book, “Scarcity –Humanity’s Final Chapter,” within less than fifty years we will economically run out of about 90 per cent of the elements needed to  run an industrial-military-consumer complex, (Remember Ike?) supporting the livelihoods of more than seven billion people. Churchill’s gathering storm compares better to a mere cloud burst in this light.

Add George Soros’s former partner; seasoned investor, Jim Roger’s recent remarks, “shortagesof raw material will lead to wars” and one can plainly see that it is just not liberal academics, scientists and greenies that comprehend the global human adversity that we will soon face. Consider further, that his constantly advised and recommended top “Conservative Investment” pick is: “Buy a Farm.” We get his message in no uncertain terms.

And so should you. As we cut through The Fog of Economics, humanity comes to the fork in the road. To decide, whether or not, we now take the one less traveled depends on the overall goal we set, which is a decision between two concepts – “human longevity or unbridled growth.” It is utterly impossible to simultaneously pursue both, as they are in nature, physics and mathematics directly opposing endeavours.

The attached recent commentary from an affiliated blog explores this debate further and calls upon all of us to consider, decide and act upon the choice you believe to be best. Keeping in mind that there are not only fogs in war - but they also exist in economics, theology, politics and many other areas of human concern. Let us not narrow the areas of our concern, forget our limitations nor act in arrogance. Let us instead cleanse ourselves of these fogs, taking the road less traveled, so that we continue to pass on to all future generations; not an invisible genocide, but the human spirit embodied in the richness and diversity of life.

What is our goal?

Terry A McNeil

First Financial Insights

www.firstfinancialinsights.blogspot.com

January 21, 2013

AFFILIATE BLOG – January 10^th, 2013

WHAT IS OUR GOAL?

 HUMAN LONGEVITY OR UNBRIDLED GROWTH?

CLICK ABOVE

Another Foggy Day -

Steve Jobs, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Peter Kinesa

Investors' Insights:

Week Ending January 19, 2013 

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS

"Investors' Insights"

Jim Rogers : I am not Optimistic for the most part about Stock Markets

Who is Jimmy? Living in a economic world of abstractions for the past 200 years, which is really a cosmic burp so to speak, is by no means an indication of things to come. Taking a meta-statistical view, one could ask what is the relevant data observation when it comes to evaluating market price trends and movements. At the extreme, we divide the 200 year observation by 2, 4, or even 8. None of these groups as our sample size would be large enough to draw any meaningful statistical inference.

Of course on the other hand, you could divide 200 years by thousands and come up with all sorts of the statistically significant conclusions given the large number of data observations. So what is the statistical reality? Actually, whatever you would like it to be based on your defining assumptions. Or put plainly by a wise guy from the Bronx who once said, "liar's figure and figures lie."

Having said that, we don't pay much heed to past market data, as there is almost no way of drawing a meaningful conclusion. Are focus then turns to concrete constructs, such as the physical supplies of raw material and population expansion ( obviously it is much more comprehensive, but we still have to keep some secrets). In any event, our analysis and synthesis fully supports Mr Jim Roger's statement.

"I am not optimistic for the most part about the markets"

And, neither are we...

First Financial Insights

January 18, 2013

Go figure?



A Hero For Our Times -
 

 

 

Dr Peter G Kinesa : Where Marc Faber Sees Apple (AAPL) Going:

Where Marc Faber Sees Apple (AAPL) Going Apple without Steve Jobs is like the church without the Pope. Rarely, over the course of busi...

Great words Peter, that we endorse and concur with in all respects.

And we too, miss him.

First Financial Insights

January 17, 2013

Like a Rolling Stone...

Marc Faber: I do not play Agricultural Commodities because I want to sleep at night , they are extremely volatile

Marc is absolutely right as these commodities offer the greatest uncertainties due to weather, disease, politics, logistics and a host of other factors. However, this should not preclude the wise investor from taking a longer-term position in this sector, as despite the up and downs it has tremendous inertia behind it. Namely, growing global populations and less and less viable farm land available to serve the growing population needs. Plainly a great formula for investment success - more demand; less supply.

However, pick your stocks, ETFs and countries wisely, not forgetting the currency moves an play into the total return value. You can also expect as the global supply situation tightens that the sector will garner more then its fair share of mergers and acquisitions at premium values. The main players being "Sovereign Funds" who are less concerned about return , and more concerned with their geo-political survival.

In the end a lot of money will be made in agricultural commodities over the next decades based the logical constraints that will drive pricing. Just be wise in your choices.

Remember too, that the best agricultural investment any of us can still make going forward - BUY A FARM!

First Financial Insights

January 15, 2013

Farming Success = Higher Demand, Falling Supply

Jim Rogers : There is going to be a huge shift in American society

It will be a meta-shift that is unprecedented historically.  America is in more trouble now than at any time in its history. It pales in comparison to either the Revolutionary or Civil Wars. That's not us saying that, but it is the voices of Americans we are echoing. Voices who have given careful thought to their predicament fearing that the whole complex is just not sustainable any longer. Their country is at the brink - and the possible outcomes are simply uncertain and scary.

The problem is that once the ball starts to roll, it becomes more difficult to control. This is not good for the markets, economy and the people's general interests.Suffering will be fealt through out the rest ot the world, as well.Let us just hope something emerges, and it is not too little - too late

For every one's sake.

First Financial Insights

January15, 2013  

Voices of Democray

The Finance Lounge: Investing in emerging markets:

Economic globalization has abolished trade and investment barriers, and has integrated global supply chains. In this context, emerging m...

Concurrently, Dr Kinesa's blog provided his economic views on globalization, and indirectly emerging markets. Reading between the lines, he believes that the globalization mantra is fading, as the costs far outweigh any perceived or actual benefits. Globalization works when you have low energy costs -cheap fossil fuels - that allow oligarchs to exploit the cheap labour of the poor and sick people, in far-away despot nations. Those days are logically numbered.

Hence,  from an investment view we would not entertain any opportunities in such emerging (sic) countries, as they are more likely to become the next Nauru or Greece, long before they are ever emerge into utopic economic paradises. Expect more social and political unrest in these nation too, as they face the slippery side of the "Peak Everthing" slope.

First Financial Insights

January 14, 2013   

See if you invest in Emerging Markets, then...

SHARKBUSTERS - Mack the Knife

SHARKBUSTERS

Mack the Knife

We're Back!

Our media team had at last revitalized our Group's corporate video on the weekend. Once they did, we had everyone on staff scrambling to put something together for release Monday. Like troopers they pulled it together, despite the fact this was supposed to be their first weekend off since the holidays. To them, we owe a great debt of gratitude.

Our message is pretty clear; "Bad Guys Beware" cause ole Macky's back in town. And our unconventional maverick approach will expose and pursue with a vengeance those who work against the better interests of the human condition, particularly in areas concerning economics, investments and finance. At the same time, giving you the top world leading insights in these areas. We will take no prisoners!

We had the media guys also dig up the lyrics; we posted them below so you could sing along as you watch. One of those team spirit deals - that brings a tear to the heart.

Anyway, without further blathering. " Oh the shark babe, has such teeth, dear..."

Sharkbusters

January 14, 2013

Mack the Knife

Lyrics - Bobby Darrin's version

Oh, the shark, babe, has such teeth, dear

And it shows them pearly white

Just a jackknife has old MacHeath, babe

And he keeps it, out of sight

Ya know when that shark bites with his teeth, babe

Scarlet billows start to spread

Fancy gloves, THOUGH, wears old MacHeath, babe

So there's never, never a trace of red

Now on the sidewalk, huh, huh, whoo sunny mornin', uh huh

Lies a body just oozin' life, eek

And someone's sneakin'round the corner

Could that someone be Mack the Knife?

There's a tugboat, huh, huh, huh down by the river don'tcha know

WITH a cement bag just droopin' on down

Oh, that cement is just, it's there for the weight, dear

FIVE'll get ya ten old Macky's back in town

Now d'ja hear 'bout Louie Miller? He disappeared, babe

After drawin' out all his hard-earned cash

And now MacHeath spends just like a sailor

Could it be our boy's done somethin' rash? 

Now Jenny Diver, ho, ho, OH, Sukey Tawdry 

Ooh, Miss Lotte Lenya and old Lucy Brown

Oh, the line forms on the right, babe

Now that Macky's back in town

I said Jenny Diver, wow, Sukey Tawdry 

look out Miss Lotte Lenya and old Lucy Brown

Yes, that line forms on the right, babe

We're Back!

Jack Nicholson, Peter Kinesa, Marc Faber, Peter Schiff

Investors' Insights:

Week Ending January 12, 2013 

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS

"Investors' Insights"

Marc Faber : The US Dollar is a very very Sick Currency

Marc is still a master of understatements as the greenback is approaching the terminal stage - that's not good for anyone on the planet. It is also highly unlikely that any abstractionist voodoo by the FED can prevent this patient from flat-lining. The big short money is sure to be made on the long US bonds, as investors head for the gates, if rates are not increased relative to real risk. The salad days for the US are coming to an abrupt close.

And remember when interest rates rise it will also impact the cap factor on stocks, regardless of earnings, setting the stage for carnage in equities as well.

Watch the video here. Peter we believe is right this time; the Canadian dollar and assets are good safe harbours under these conditions. Expect all precious metals to spike under a dollar collapse, as it will simply take more dollars to buy all these commodities. And even oil prices should be affected.

Meaning too, that inflation should begin to rear its ugly head sending the economy back into a tailspin.

Specific stocks to watch out for, will be Apple, Goldman Sachs ,AIG and all the Big US banks, when the lid pops off this pressure cooker.

Can anyone pull a rabbit out of the hat? Unlikely, this time

Enjoy your weekend - and  Monday morning coffee!

First Financial Insights
January 11, 2012 
4.00 pm EST

Please, just one more time...

ONE FLEW OVER THE CUCKOO'S NEST

NOW WE KNOW, DR KINESA HAS A SENSE OF HUMOUR TOO.

First Financial Insights
January 9, 2013


Energy charts of the day


Read this from the above linked article:

The Bakken development in North Dakota should be an example for the nation, indicating what could be accomplished with the right energy policies to decrease unemployment, raise government revenues, increase per capita income, decrease poverty, and help produce the nation’s major energy source.

So far, the hydraulic fracturing revolution that has created these positive economic developments is largely confined to production on private and state lands, due to governmental policies reducing opportunities on federal lands and a punitive federal regulatory environment. Even though there are massive shale oil and oil shale resources on federal lands, federal policies are choking off any production increases. Here’s one illustrious example: it takes the federal government 307 days to process a permit to drill, but it only takes North Dakota 10 days (see chart below).

And then it leads us to extinction at an increasingly more rapid rate, so we will not have to worry about having the right energy policies ever again. Ever.

Define insanity?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
January 9, 2013 

"Guys,  I call it a Hydraulic  Fracturing Revolution"

Marc Faber : 2013 will not be a favorable year for holders of Assets

Marc just 2013? Do you mean sell everything? If that is the case we could not agree more. For three BIG  reasons that have many sub-components we can list. First, the obvious mathematical debacle caused when an interest rate rise would contract asset values by 30% or more. Second as resources shrink globally and populations grow, then currency debasement is epidemic - unless we find another planet real soon. Third, there just isn't a lot of upside anywhere that can justify the return for the risk- where are the flying cars?

So, let's face it the prospects for the next 10? 20? or even 50 years do not look so good when the mathematical and physical resource constraints and limits are so clearly stacked against the investor.

That means investors should buy those flying cars that travel to other planets after they sell all their earthly assets.

Is that what Marc's really saying? Or simply -sell everything?

First Financial Insights
January 9, 2013

Anyone know where we are going?

Jim Rogers - 2013 Will Be a Disaster

You have to be kidding Jim? Just 2013? This is the Great Bear Market that occurs just before... well, you know.
Get your shorts out, but this is going to be a hot one to worry about for years to come...

First Financial Insights
January 8, 2013

My advice is...

Peter Schiff Blog: "Rising Prices" As Their Top Economic Concern: 

A recent poll of likely voters conducted by Fox News in the weeks before the election, revealed that 41% of respondents identified "rising p...

Investment Rule Number One: 

Never, ever, ever, believe any government's CPI number. First, have you ever met an honest politician? Now go one step further and give politicians some influence over numbers that affect their dubious careers - and you will get the picture?

Add into this the many arbitrary assumptions regarding the basket of goods, then even its conceptual basis lacks the scientific rigor one would expect from such a definitive. Moreover, keeping the CPI low stays any increases in rates that would sink asset values and bring on a credit crunch, depression and much social unrest. So never has this number been this  critical to politicians, bankers, pensions and other similar interests. 

Many more conceptual flaws could be mentioned about the wonkiest number of our times, but they are better left to a fuller discourse. One thing is for sure, the real CPI is running closer to 7%  - just go to your grocery store.

First Financial Insights

January 7, 2013

Politicians: Would you trust this man with your CPI?

Jim Rogers : This is a Federal Reserve rally. The money has to go somewhere and its going into the Stock Market and the Commodity Market

A Federal Reserve Rally or a Bozo-the-Clown Rally? First, this tacit endorsement of pouring more money into the markets is off-the-wall.

Smart investors know that any slight uptick in rates will trigger a huge debasement in asset values. So - Get Out Now!

First Financial Insights

January 6, 2013

This Is My Rally Folks...