Investors' Insights:
Week Ending January 19, 2013
FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS
"Investors' Insights"
For every one's sake.
The Finance Lounge: Investing in emerging markets:
First Financial Insights
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Who is Jimmy? Living in a economic world of abstractions for the past 200 years, which is really a cosmic burp so to speak, is by no means an indication of things to come. Taking a meta-statistical view, one could ask what is the relevant data observation when it comes to evaluating market price trends and movements. At the extreme, we divide the 200 year observation by 2, 4, or even 8. None of these groups as our sample size would be large enough to draw any meaningful statistical inference.
Of course on the other hand, you could divide 200 years by thousands and come up with all sorts of the statistically significant conclusions given the large number of data observations. So what is the statistical reality? Actually, whatever you would like it to be based on your defining assumptions. Or put plainly by a wise guy from the Bronx who once said, "liar's figure and figures lie."
Having said that, we don't pay much heed to past market data, as there is almost no way of drawing a meaningful conclusion. Are focus then turns to concrete constructs, such as the physical supplies of raw material and population expansion ( obviously it is much more comprehensive, but we still have to keep some secrets). In any event, our analysis and synthesis fully supports Mr Jim Roger's statement.
"I am not optimistic for the most part about the markets"
And, neither are we...
First Financial Insights
January 18, 2013
Go figure?
A Hero For Our Times -
Where Marc Faber Sees Apple (AAPL) Going Apple without Steve Jobs is like the church without the Pope. Rarely, over the course of busi...
Great words Peter, that we endorse and concur with in all respects.
And we too, miss him.
First Financial Insights
January 17, 2013
Like a Rolling Stone...
Marc is absolutely right as these commodities offer the greatest uncertainties due to weather, disease, politics, logistics and a host of other factors. However, this should not preclude the wise investor from taking a longer-term position in this sector, as despite the up and downs it has tremendous inertia behind it. Namely, growing global populations and less and less viable farm land available to serve the growing population needs. Plainly a great formula for investment success - more demand; less supply.
However, pick your stocks, ETFs and countries wisely, not forgetting the currency moves an play into the total return value. You can also expect as the global supply situation tightens that the sector will garner more then its fair share of mergers and acquisitions at premium values. The main players being "Sovereign Funds" who are less concerned about return , and more concerned with their geo-political survival.
In the end a lot of money will be made in agricultural commodities over the next decades based the logical constraints that will drive pricing. Just be wise in your choices.
Remember too, that the best agricultural investment any of us can still make going forward - BUY A FARM!
First Financial Insights
January 15, 2013
Farming Success = Higher Demand, Falling Supply
It will be a meta-shift that is unprecedented historically. America is in more trouble now than at any time in its history. It pales in comparison to either the Revolutionary or Civil Wars. That's not us saying that, but it is the voices of Americans we are echoing. Voices who have given careful thought to their predicament fearing that the whole complex is just not sustainable any longer. Their country is at the brink - and the possible outcomes are simply uncertain and scary.
The problem is that once the ball starts to roll, it becomes more difficult to control. This is not good for the markets, economy and the people's general interests.Suffering will be fealt through out the rest ot the world, as well.Let us just hope something emerges, and it is not too little - too late
For every one's sake.
First Financial Insights
January15, 2013
Voices of Democray
The Finance Lounge: Investing in emerging markets:
Economic globalization has abolished trade and investment barriers, and has integrated global supply chains. In this context, emerging m...
Concurrently, Dr Kinesa's blog provided his economic views on globalization, and indirectly emerging markets. Reading between the lines, he believes that the globalization mantra is fading, as the costs far outweigh any perceived or actual benefits. Globalization works when you have low energy costs -cheap fossil fuels - that allow oligarchs to exploit the cheap labour of the poor and sick people, in far-away despot nations. Those days are logically numbered.
Hence, from an investment view we would not entertain any opportunities in such emerging (sic) countries, as they are more likely to become the next Nauru or Greece, long before they are ever emerge into utopic economic paradises. Expect more social and political unrest in these nation too, as they face the slippery side of the "Peak Everthing" slope.
First Financial Insights
January 14, 2013
See if you invest in Emerging Markets, then...
