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Saturday, February 6, 2016

EYE on the World - Who's Swimming Naked?

Will Massive Emerging Market Outflows Spark 2016 Recession?

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We think so?

Not only because of the huge outflows of capital from these markets, but also because of the collapse in key Asian realty markets, the serious financial difficulties in the global banking sector, the downward production/price trends in commodities,(particularly oil), and the fact that we have built a huge banking bubble over the past 7 years that overheated  the largest real estate and financial markets valuations with insanely low interest rates.  With certitude, it is crystal clear  that these conditions were and are  unsustainable and that (1) they were constructed without any idea,whatsoever, as to how to transition back to a normative  interest rate environment. We would also sensibly guess that these same boneheads, who had constructed this mathematical "'asset valuation trap," (2) have no fail-safes or plans in mind to remedy the next horrific meltdown such a trap should surely exacerbate.

As Warren  Buffet once remarked; so again we are  going to see, "who is swimming naked

And now,  is also a good time to forget everything you learnt in "Economics 101" regarding the importance of  those phony GNP, CPI and other government fabricated metrics and theories (social phenomena), but rather focus on  real physical activity and measures (scientific phenomena). For instance, if oil production, in physical barrels, continues dropping by 10. 20 or 30%; you may rest assured that global economic activity is  strongly correlating with that decline, irrespective of whatever official abstraction numbers are published by corrupted alchemists in the statistics bureaus.

As the infamous street-kid from Brooklyn, NY  firmly stated, "the name's Tucker buddy, not Sucker..."

Having said that, it is not only the government metrics and  reports that are suspect, but also the propaganda control over the Western media causes its information to be similarly tainted  - to the point of being practically worthless, as arguably indicated and supported by the following story. 

Western Media Ignores Putin’s Progress in Syria

Three months into his military intervention in Syria, Putin has achieved his central goal of stabilizing the Assad government and, with the costs relatively low, could sustain military operations at this level for years. What we are not reading in the media is that, after months of slow but steady progress, the Russian-led coalition (Syrian Arab Army, Iranian Quds Forces, and Hezbollah) has broken through the sluicegate and is advancing on all fronts while enemy positions are crumbling.