GLOBAL MARKETS


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Thursday, July 14, 2016

No Doubt We Are In A BIG Mess

A Precarious State
The global political/economic state feels precarious for a good reason: it is precarious.




That the global economy is in a precarious state seems self-evident.Take your pick of the systemic risks: debt bubble and slowdown in China, banking/political crisis in Europe, negative interest rates and stagnation in Japan, ongoing meltdown in emerging markets and currencies, oil prices that threaten mayhem if they go up and if they go down, and a downturn in global trade that is usually associated with recession.
Other than that, everything's great. How about those summer Olympics? Seriously, what isn't in a precarious state?

If the global financial sector isn't precarious, then why is capital flooding into negative interest bonds? Why are money managers willing to accept a guaranteed loss of capital if things are going great and opportunities for low-risk profits are abundant?
The political realm is also in a precarious state. No matter how you interpret Brexit--as a Kabuki play by Deep State insiders, as a political ploy that went off the rails, as an ugly outburst of xenophobia, as a rebellion of the Forgotten Class that lost out in the Great Financialization boom, as a resurgence of nationalism--whatever interpretation or combination of factors you favor, the net result is the same: Brexit reflects a precarious state of shifting political tectonics that threatens the status quo.

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