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Saturday, April 6, 2013

Nouriel Roubini, Jim Rogers, Niall Ferguson, #Eurocrisis

Investors' Insights:
Week Ended April 6, 2013

"Investors' Insights"

Nouriel Roubini Blog: Video: Market OutlookTHU 04 APR 13 | 03:45 PM ET: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics, discusses China and Japan, and explains whether he sti...

After a while these television economists start to sound so programmed with their rhetoric the words start to blend together and sound phonetically like blah, blah, blah. The accent does spice it a bit though. And most of what is being said is trade oriented and short-term focused - less than two years. Not surprisingly, there is little reference to Cyprus and the complete boon-dongle this was for the EU. No mention made of what could happen to EU bond markets and how that could spread to equities and bond markets around the world.That's shocking, as there is still global contagion potential here.

To be short, Nouriel's TV shows has entertainment value but offers very little to the serious long-term investor. If he could, or did offer such value; then he would not an economist. That's our read on it.

First Financial Insights

April 5, 2013



Thanks Folks...

Jim it is not about the bank accounts, that's the easy one to figure out. You cannot short bank accounts. But, you can short currencies, bonds and a variety of financial intermediaries and their related securities. You got to have a sneaking suspicion that is where the bucks can be made. Maybe Jim will say something once he has his positions in place?

Where should we do our homework, anyways? Let me see there's the EU, Banks, Insurers, Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc, etc,

First Financial Insights
April 3, 2013

"and that's the long and short of it"

Who knows? First, it is difficult to make any sort of comparison to the Roman Empire for a thousand reasons. Niall is right in stating, that it basically launched Europe into the Dark Ages with little impact on the rest of the planet. The British Empire has fallen with little impact on the state of global society, as there were others there to pick up the ball. So even, a substantive decline or fall of the American Empire is not of great concern to global society, as there are many in the wings ready to step in and provide a leading role on a combined or singular basis. The world will go on.

The bigger concern is the fall of the "global industrial-financial complex" that is not run by geographic political states, but a collection of multi-national entities operating without borders. It is an invisible political state that operates organically without the protocols that have defined geographic political states. It is the collective inertia, infrastructures and outputs of the business and economic community for our global village. It is a ghostly enigma, but nonetheless exists by virtue of long-standing practises and inter-connections that are entrenched among nations around the planet.

It has no flag, no symbols, no constitution, no formal codes and no figurehead as leader. It cannot  be attacked geographically or otherwise.Yet, as world leaders certainly come to understand, it is an entity that must be recognized and dealt with using practical diplomacy. It is topic reaching far beyond these comments.

The point being, it is when this "Invisible Empire" falls, then humanity as a whole would enters a Dark Age similar to regional historic periods. Triggers for this collapse, could come from breakdowns in global finance, international trade, bio-sphere devastation or the shortages of the physical ingredients required to keep a "global industrial-financial complex" running. Most likely, any of these cases or combinations, would lead to horrific global hostilities.

The next dark age may occur sooner than any of us expect, lasting longer than can be imagined. This planet is a small island in the universe, isolated from neighboring entities offering alternative possibilities for existence. And we have seen what happens to small isolated islands. 

Through-out  history empires rise and fall, there is little to believe that this one is any different - a sobering thought.

First Financial Insights

April 3, 2013

The  Invisible Empire?

Monarchs did this many times through-out history - not a new story really. What Jim did not emphasise is that Central Banks who can print their own fiat currencies are taxing away our savings, investments and wealth through this method of debasing indirect taxation. There are quietly confiscating your assets to bailout banks, pay excessive bonuses and cover-up many other misdeeds - none of us are the wiser.

Cyprus would have also taken this much quieter, sneakier path of stealing savings and wealth confiscation, but they had one problem. They were part of the EU - meaning they could not print their own currency. They were hence forced to directly tax deposits, which is more apparent and above-board. 

International Banks should learn from Canadian banks, who every year invent new programs and fees to tax and confiscate more of their depositors funds. Masters of semantics. linguistics and legalese, they have fooled everyone into believing in these disciplined annual thefts are legitimate. So far!  When the presidents of banks earn 50 times more than the country 's leader - you know where the crooks are working. Now we need police. 

Returning to Cyprus, EU and banks, these events are creating a global gloss of confidence and trust in the financial system that is justified - all these poor judgements will ultimately lead to global financial Bubblegeddon and then political upheaval. The Bond Vigilantes are going to get very rich, while the New York Times will be looking for a new OP-ED columnists. Say Jimmy, are you busy? 

First Financial Insights

April 2, 2013