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Thursday, August 4, 2016

Over-Inflated Asset Bubbles Could Collapse In Fall


Technically Speaking: There Is No Asset Bubble?

 In this past weekend’s newsletter, I reviewed the current state of the market and the risks of an August/September correction from a statistical standpoint.

However, the important point was the stagnation of the market over the last couple of weeks following the breakout above previous resistance levels to all-time highs despite rampant concerns about the effect of the “Brexit.”  This, of course, has been the result of a rapid response by global Central Banks to push enough liquidity into the system to offset any potential negative impact from the vote. 


As I have noted over the past couple of weeks, the market is in the process of digesting an extreme overbought condition. As I stated this past weekend, there are two ways to accomplish this:
Importantly, there are TWO ways to solve an overbought and overextended market advance.
The first is for the market to continue this very tight trading range long enough for the moving average to catch up with the price.
The second is a corrective pullback, which is notated in the chart below. However, not all pullbacks are created equal. 
  1. A pullback to 2135, the previous all-time high, that holds that level will allow for an increase in equity allocations to the new targets.
  2. A pullback that breaks 2135 will keep equity allocation increases on ‘HOLD’ until support has been tested.
  3. A pullback that breaks 2080 will trigger ‘stop losses’ in portfolios and confirm the recent breakout was a short-term ‘head fake.’
With the markets still at a rather extreme deviation from the intermediate-term moving average, the likelihood of a corrective action in the short-term outweighs the probability of a further advance.”

CIA's clandestine meeting in Istanbul on coup night

As more evidence surfaces daily it seems the CIA was playing a huge role behind the July 15 coup attempt.

Australia battery storage comparison table – July update

A summary of new batteries and new energy storage systems that have been announced in Australia.

Surface Methane

The drying Amazon rainforest is squeezing substantial amounts of hothouse gasses into the atmosphere. Monitors indicate pools of 600 to 800 ppm CO2 in 100- to 200-mile-wide spikes that signal the coming Amazon rainforest wildfires this summer predicted by NASA.  

High Temperatures In the Arctic 

This year to April the Northern Hemisphere oceans were 0.85°C warmer than the 20th century average, while temperatures as high as 28.9°C were recorded over the Mackenzie River close to the Arctic Ocean on June 13.