SouthEast #Asia Downturn Poses Serious #Economic Risks

"the next downturn will likely be broad-based and not limited to an acute financial crash, as it is set to be “a more typical economic correction at the end of a cycle”."

‘Southeast Asia at risk of faring worse in next downturn than in global financial crisis’

BAIN & CO. ANALYSTS

SINGAPORE — Southeast Asia is more vulnerable to an economic downturn than it was during the global financial crisis one decade ago, according to analysts at global management consultancy Bain & Co.

Greater exposure to a slowing China – and other structural economic shifts – have left most Asean markets in a more perilous position than before, according to a report released on Friday.

Half of the region’s economies have fallen into a current account deficit as exports tumbled, while Vietnam and the Philippines were the only two countries not to post lower growth in 2018.

The commodities sector will not be as able to cushion the economic blow, as prices and sales are both down, while corporate and household debt have blown past 2008 and 2009 levels to reach the private-sector leverage of more developed markets such as the United States.

“The region’s strong economic growth does not, in fact, shelter it from harm should other parts of the world sink into a downturn or even a recession,” said the report.

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ASIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

#Week4Future: Global #Climate #Strike Week - @postcarbon

At this unprecedented pivital juncture in human history First Financial Insights is pleased to annouce its support and endorsement of the beliefs, policies and actions of:

Post Carbon Institute

Our Strategy

Post Carbon Institute provides individuals and communities with the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated ecological, economic, energy, and equity crises of the 21st century. We help build resilience to withstand these crises, and support social and cultural change to make society more ready to take decisive and appropriate action. Specifically, we:

• Grow collective understanding of our energy reality, and the need for both conservation and appropriate, community-centric renewable energy.
• Promote community resilience as the best way to build thriving, relocalized neighborhoods, towns, and cities capable of withstanding coming disruptions.
• Support a growing movement of innovators and early adopters who can develop best practices and provide leadership both now and during future crises.

"But even if hope has to be held lightly in the steely-eyed recognition of what we face, we still must take action. Much of that action comes back to our own backyards."

A sea change moment?

Asher Miller

September 19, 2019

Tomorrow begins Global Climate Strike Week, led by young people to demand urgent action to address the climate emergency. What many hope will be a sea change moment in the struggle to mobilize a real response to this existential threat had a humble start a year ago when a young Swedish student, Greta Thunberg, began spending her Fridays protesting in front of the Swedish Parliament. Inspired by Greta’s example—and her blunt, uncompromising stance—millions of students have since joined her in the “Fridays for the Future” movement. This week is an opportunity for the rest of us to participate.

I will be out on the streets tomorrow and the following Friday in my hometown, and I’ll be joining a number of other activities planned locally over the coming week. PCI is supporting our staff to actively participate in the various communities where they live. We’d like to encourage you to do the same. Visit the Climate Strike website to find activities near you.

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The Most Important Speech Ever

#CLIMATECRISIS: IMPORTANT #WEBINAR INVITATION FROM THE POST #CARBON INSTITUTE

Hello Everyone, I work on issues surrounding the climate crisis nearly every day, but I still struggle to talk about the magnitude of the situation with my family and friends. Finding the right approach to these conversations—so we can keep talking even when we disagree or leave the conversation feeling empowered rather than disheartened—can be truly challenging. Which is why I'm so excited about our live webinar with Karin Kirk and Susanne Moser, We Need to Talk: How to have difficult conversations about the climate crisis. Karin Kirk has taught courses about climate change, overseen energy conservation projects, worked on national-scale climate education efforts, and measured the effectiveness of NOAA's Climate.gov website. While a scientist by training, Karin is particularly intrigued by the intersection of science and the human dimension. Susanne Moser is a geographer who works nationally and internationally as an independent scholar and consultant from a base in western Massachusetts. Her work with government agencies, non-profits, foundations, and other researchers and consultants focuses on adaptation to climate change, resilience, transformation, science-policy interactions, and effective climate change communication. During the webinar we'll talk about: Overcoming personal reluctance to have conversations about the climate crisis Strategies for connecting with people who disagree with us How to approach this difficult topic so that you inspire others to take action I hope you'll join us. Our panelists have a wealth of experience and wisdom to offer so we really think you'll enjoy this great conversation whether you talk to people about the climate crisis for a living or out of personal passion. WHAT: Live Webinar - We Need To Talk DATE: Thursday, October 10, 2019 TIME: 11:00 AM PDT / 2:00 PM EDT / 6:00 PM GMT GET YOUR TICKETS TODAY We are so lucky to have such an engaged and inspiring community. Your participation in these events makes them richer and far more meaningful. If you think your family and friends might also find this webinar interesting, please spread the word and share this post with them. In gratitude, Amy Buringrud Marketing & Communications Director Copyright © 2019 Post Carbon Institute, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: Post Carbon Institute 800 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 5 Corvallis, Oregon 97333 Add us to your address book

#Economic GREAT #Depression Looms As Real #Returns Hit Historic Lows

"The total return of the economy seems to be too low now. This seems to be why we have problems of many types, ranging from (a) low interest rates to (b) low profitability for energy producers to (c) too much wage disparity"

Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019

By Gail Tverberg

Many people are concerned that we have an oil problem. Or they are concerned about recession and the need to lower interest rates.

As I see the situation, we have a problem of a networked economy that is not functioning well. A big part of this problem is energy-related. Strange as it may seem, energy prices (including oil prices) are too low for producers. If debt levels were growing more rapidly, this low-price problem would go away.

The “standard way” of encouraging more debt-based purchases is by lowering interest rates. But we are running out of room to do this now. We also seem to be running out of economic investments to make with debt. If expected returns on investment were greater, interest rates would be higher.

Without economic investments, demand for commodities of all kinds, including energy products, tends to stay too low. This is the problem we have today. Our debt problem and our energy problem are really different aspects of a networked economy that is no longer generating enough total return. History suggests that these periods tend to end badly.

THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD!

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REVISIT GREAT DEPRESSION CAUSES