#IMAGINE

....on this day there are dreams that touch the

 hearts of the last eternity, where whispers

 dance with stars... 

IMAGINE

And always in those dreams - are Martin, 

Bobby, Jack, NYPD, NYFD, and so many 

others

 - who stood tall and never stopped believing in

 those dreams...

and for that , we say thank you

So again, we imagine

December 25, 2012

... and YOU are not the only ONE

Dr Peter G Kinesa : ALL ECONOMISTS ARE WRONG - DEAD WRONG

Dr Peter G Kinesa : ALL ECONOMISTS ARE WRONG - DEAD WRONG:

 

Captain, My Captain... ALL  ECONOMISTS ARE WRONG – DEAD WRONG! Why we are in this mess: Where did it all begin? Why ar...

Bring them on Peter! Bring them on! The Whartons, Harvards, Oxfords, MITs and all the so-called Economists who practice a craft of linguistic deception. 

But let them know. Let them know these Canadians. Let them know when their blades hit the ice...

"Even the Gates of Hell - Fear these Canadians. Even the Gates of Hell "

Thanks Peter, for the insights and effort,
Best of the Season 

First Financial Insights
December 21, 2012 

"Indeed, even the Gates of Hell... "

 

 

 

Paul Krugman, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Nouriel Roubini

Investors' Insights:
Week Ending December 15, 2012 

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS

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"THRILLA IN MANILLA"

2012 Heavyweight Fight

Faber vs Krugman

Dr Peter G Kinesa : HBO LIVE: #FABER vs #KRUGMAN 2012 Heavyweight T...: Marc Faber: Paul Krugman Should Go & Live In North Korea The gloves are off - and the promoters are lining up for the biggest fight ever ...

This should prove to be one of the most exciting heavyweight battles in decades. Fans are so excited that tickets were sold out in a couple of hours. However you can still watch it LIVE on HBO.

This is fun, yet all jokes reveal serious matters. See ya there!

First Financial Insights

December 15, 2012

Jim Rogers: I would like to find a way to invest in North Korea

North Korea? Really? Too funny - we just do not know if we should laugh or cry about this implied advice? Certainly, Mr Rogers must regret these remarks in view of recent events, Then again; never mind recent events, how about the on-going atrocities of this evil blood-drenched regime. Oh well, why should anyone believe in moral capitalism when there is a buck to be made? Ask any mercenary...

Well Jim I guess we know what side you' re on and who you expect to win the inevitable confrontation. Gotta love geo-political investing.

Any other bets?

First Financial Insights

December 14, 2012

"One Should Only Invest (Bet) in Winners"

Dr Peter G Kinesa : Marc Faber : In a Negative Real Interest Environment...:

Marc Faber : In a Negative Real Interest Environment Some Assets could go Ballistic on the upside Think about what this means in a practical...

Paul Krugman calls this predicament a "liquidity trap". Often we stated that the mathematics also creates a "valuation trap". Then adding them both together creates a "reality trap" - the breach of the physical imbalance between abstractionists' and existentialists' theories leading to economic collapse. 

Or you could say, the pie just got too small to support the population and its unbridled appetite to produce and consume the resources of a finite planet.

That's not philosophy... it's science!

First Financial Insights

December 13, 2012

That's not a banana...

Nouriel Roubini Blog: To Keep Greece In The Eurozone, You Need A Transfe...:

"To keep Greece in the euro zone, effectively you need a transfer union, you have to realize that the problems of Greece are long-term, it’s ..."

It never ceases to amaze us how classical economists ignore reality and rely on abstracts - to fix what are very real physical economic problems. Now, to uphold the integrity of their craft they suggest ideas that will take 10 to 20 years to (sic) succeed. So we have to wait 20 years to see if they are right or not?

Whereas Greece's problems will never be fixed as the physical economic geography has a smell of Nauru too it. So a return to a smaller population that lives off of farming and fishing is inevitable.

First Financial Insights

December, 12, 2012

Greek fishing business catches Nauru?

Eric Sprott Blog: Gold - Solution to the Banking Crisis:  

By: Eric Sprott & David Baker The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is an exclusive and somewhat mysterious entity that issues bank...

One can only wonder if we ever truly leave our childhood fantasies behind? Central Bankers provide much evidence that many of us continue to hold on to these fantasies, despite the preponderance of science and evidence to the contrary. Blame it on group think? Politics? Denial? Or a host of other factors - the reality is that Central Bankers need to come to grips with scientific and mathematical constraints; otherwise, they are going to be waiting an awfully long time, for the Jolly Fella to arrive.

At the same time, we should also remind them - there is no Tooth Fairy!   

First Financial Insights

December 11, 2012

Are they still waiting? 

Dr Peter G Kinesa : Finance Documentaries: Super Rich: The Greed Game:

  

Finance Documentaries: Super Rich: The Greed Game : The luxurious lifestyle of those at the top of the world of finance inspires awe, disgu...

Greed in many forms, has it consequences - are those who have benefited from the economic doctrines that asserted that growth was the panacea, now facing the portrait of Dorian Grey? 

We are afraid to find out...

First Financial Insights

December 11,2012

An Economic Portrait?

Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Peter Kinesa, Jim Rogers

Investors' Insights:
Week Ending Decenber 8, 2012 

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Calculated Risk: FDIC reports Fewer Problem banks, Total REO Declines in Q3

Frankie: So Bring in the Clowns...

Whatever you think, treat these number with the  utmost care, and then toss then in the trash.Three quick reasons:

Questionable accuracy of accounting; as we have seen, many regulators and auditors are hired guns with severe limitations. Value adjustments lag the reality often by 18 to 24 months.

Limited predictive value as these are manipulated abstracts "premised on neo-classical economics". If the system worked, then the 2008 meltdown would not have occurred - it did. So what more do we need to say?

Interest rates must revert to historic means, invariably reflecting actual inflation. Hypothetically, mathematically adjusting these reported values using historic- normative interest rates would wipe out 30% of asset values; putting 90% of the system underwater. A mean reversion is 100% inevitable - the doo doo will hit the fan - and be Much Bigger than 2008.

That's the short story. So where are the clowns?

First Financial Insights

December 6, 2012

Start Spreading the News - New York, New York...

Dr Peter G Kinesa, : Marc Faber: Oil Doesn't Have a huge downside risk...: \

Marc Faber: Oil Doesn't Have a huge downside risk In the short term, market emotions dictate day to day pricing, for the most part. In the...

These numbers conjure the darkest nightmares of things to come.

First Financial Insights

December 5, 2012

A Horror Story

Peter Schiff Blog: Video: Debt Ceiling & The Fiscal Cliff:

Peter Schiff`s comments on the economy, stock markets, politics and gold. Schiff is the renowned writer of the bestseller Crash Proof: Ho...

This character is the Glenn Beck of finance, investing and economics. Peter's videos rival vaudeville comedies; literally littered with nonsense, incoherence, absurdity and neurosis. One positive is that his doctors reported there was nothing to report from his last brain scan. Well, we could have saved them the effort.

Following Peter's blogs provides great insights into what not to say or believe. So you are forewarned, as we will not comment on all their silliness.

First Financial Insights

December 4, 2012

What there is nothing there?

Jim Rogers : If you haven't already downgraded US in your mind, do so now

We have. But the question is how far to downgrade the world's reserve currency? Which leads to the bigger question: How long should we consider this as the currency of last resort? Not an easy answer, however when it loses this special status -- Watch Out! That would be the last stand, clearly signalling the fall of the American Hegemony. The implications are immeasurable.

But if you haven't already done so in your own mind, do so now!

First Financial Insights

December 3, 2012

Don't ask... Don't Tell

Dr Peter G Kinesa, : Marc Faber: The Market is going down because corp...:

Marc Faber: The Market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint Appreciating that markets are in an unprecedented ...

Every one has different reasons for predicting the demise in corporate profits and the stagnation of global economic growth. Physical constraints are paramount, hence we fully behind the more rational physics asserted by Dr. Kinesa.

First Financial Insights

December 3, 2012

One Profitable Planet...For Now!

Dr Peter G Kinesa, : Calculated Risk: FDIC reports Fewer Problem banks,...

Dr Peter G Kinesa, : Calculated Risk: FDIC reports Fewer Problem banks,...:


The road less traveled... " When power corrupts, poetry cleanses" John Fitzgerald Kennedy, circa 1962  

 

 

 

 

Calculated Risk: FDIC reports Fewer Problem banks, Total REO Declines in Q3 Frankie: So Bring in the Clowns... Whatever you th...

Marc #Faber : #GDP is not a very Relevant Figure

Marc Faber : GDP is not a very Relevant Figure

Oh boy; Marc, this is exactly what we posted last week. We  certainly appreciate your subscription to our blog, and flattered by your  concurrence. Great minds think alike, or -  fools seldom differ?

For the record, here's a short list of the GDP concerns we have:

 

Firstly, it is held out as the annual measure of the wealth (production/consumption) created by a national  economy using a subjective abstract unit of measure - money. Meta-economics meanwhile demands an object unit of measure that ties economic activity to the actual usable-physical-elements produced and consumed by the economy. Further, a balance sheet picture is possible and more relevant, when usable-physical-elements are the unit of measure, providing a national net worth based on the difference between the aggregate of remaining usable elements and elements owing to others, including its citizens. Thus, calculating an objective national (or even global) net worth, whereby its net changes would better indicate whether national wealth improved or declined over a specified period.

Such an approach would seriously change the thinking of geo-economic-political policy makers. For example, these metrics certainly would have retrospectively influenced how the British Empire dealt with its colonies. Every effort one assumes would have been made to fully incorporate them into the base country, had policy-makers known the extent of usable-physical-elements that were being forgone. Possibly causing this island nation to still  be the most powerful economic dominion in the world. There is a lesson be learned.

Secondly, the current GDP number is flawed because it emphasizes nominal, as opposed to real values. The real value determination is, however, difficult for two reasons. One, the CPI factor used to adjust the nominal value is highly arbitrary - and filled with non-scientific rationale and assumptions. Two, many countries convert their GDP into US dollars in order to level the playing field, thereby acting to neutralize the currency exchange differences. The central flaw here, is that the US dollar is not a good proxy for global purchasing power or even the core-commodities value basket required for primary global industrial production.

Thirdly, whatever measure is applied, it should be divided by the population of the subject nation. Many stratification's of population could also apply: garnering useful insights. Regardless, the aggregate division is still a fair measure of overall industrial progress. A much measure better could however be calculated using the meta-economic object unit of measure for GDP. Even greater understandings should evolve by also using the balance sheet approach, thereby calculating the per capita object net worth.

This latter calculation is of utmost importance as nations would begin to understand the diluting effects that population growth, mortality and immigration have on the physical staying power of the nation. The real physical wealth of nations Again more insightful analysis should result, providing understandings that are more scientific and object in nature.


As indicated at the outset, there are many more concerns, but this short list should start a thoughtful process that would lead to conclusions profoundly affecting economic, social and geo-political views, both historically and prospectively. We therefore humbly look forward to hearing your thoughts and ideas!

Dr Peter G Kinesa
December 4, 2012

Finally, I get it!

Nouriel Roubini, Peter Kinesa, Jim Rogers, Nassim Taleb...

Investors' Insights:
Week Ending December 1, 2012 

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS

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Hmmm...

Jim Rogers: Politicians always look for the easy answer

There is a good reason for this - they are not exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer. In fact, once there was a village in Texas missing a idiot..Some things we should never forget.

FirstFinancial Insights

November 30, 2012

Sure I can spell it!

Nouriel Roubini Blog: A EU Of Regions? Not Likely.:

Nassim Taleb idea of Anti-Fragile implies that a EU of regions would work better than a EU of nations. But fat chance of this happening. - i...

Nassim is partly right - the EU needs to say we "whoops" we made a huge mistake; completely break-up, restrict immigration, stop subsidizing Germany and let each country take advantage of its comparative strengths - something that was once called "free markets"

But as Nouriel says, " Fat Chance"

First Financial Insights
November 29, 2012


That's Italy! There's Spain! And Greece is the back...

Jim Rogers: We Will have Wars

Jimmy what's up with the war-mongering.? It is just not about wars ... its about BIG wars when the tensions amoung great powers reach a zenith. The American Imperial Empire will fall like all the others due to geo-economic overreach, but there may not be a country standing in the wings to take their place. Why? Because the curtains will be closed.

First Financial Insights

November 29,2012

What type of WAR?

Peter Schiff Blog: Video: No Ceiling For Gold Prices:

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX) Peter Schiff`s comments on the economy, stock m...

We hear Glen Beck is Peter's Advisor; Ha! Anyway a word to the wise: when Schiff, Rogers, Faber and Glenn Beck are all recommending Asia it is time to move on - or else you can buy what they are  selling. If you know what I mean...

First Financial Insights

November 28,2012 

Sorry you guys are upset -

  

Marc Faber Forecasts Keynesian Catastrophe for Global Economy

We do not share Marc' s enthusiasm for China, Asia and emerging markets for reasons related to future scarcity of resources and related transportation costs that will make these places unsuitable investments longer-term. Moreover, China is a meta socio-economic-political  powder keg - it will collapse in the not too distant future. Be ready for that landscape.

Oh yeah; our bets are on sophisticated, low population, resource laden economies and those who have the Biggest Guns: Russia, Canada, Australia, and America. Good luck to the rest...

First Financial Insights

November 28,2012

China Rising?

Nouriel Roubini Blog: 2013: Downside Risks To Global Growth Will Be Exac...:

"In 2013, downside risks to global growth will be exacerbated by the spread of fiscal austerity to most advanced economies." - in Project Sy...

You can tell that the neo-classical economists really have no clue about what makes things work. The economies that are failing and will continue to; is  because they have no inputs for producing outputs of value. Many are running out of gas - others, just running out of stuff. Abractionists - go figure?

Watch them scratch their heads when China and Japan start their respective downward spirals - again without physical inputs; outcomes are highly predictable.

First Financial Insights

November 27, 2012

Economist or Madman?

Our Country's Hidden and Very Real Liabilities

 Well at least it has stars!

This is a right-wing American blog that is a good source of incredulous and inaccurate information. Very reassuring

Actually, Bill Gross estimates total US government debt at well over $100 trillion, which is almost equal to the value of the World's probable oil reserves. Ouch! How do you pay it off? You don't - and you can now see where our problems begin.

First Financial Insights

November 27, 2012

Marc Faber : We are already in Recession

Indeed Professor -

In case you don't understand what Marc is saying - GDP numbers are meaningless measures of just about everything. Hey, what did expect from madmen?

First Financial Insights

November 27, 2012

Jim Rogers: Both English and Mandarin will be important in the 21st century

Jimmy is forever the optimist. That's a good thing, most of the time. But China is ripe for another cultural revolution, where the human costs could exceed the 60 to 80 million lives lost during the last cleansing. Jim's blind faith in such regimes stirs the hearts of those who contrarily pursue dignity, justice and freedom for the many. Hearts passionately set against these inconceivable human atrocities. In short - The Good Guys! 

So forget about China and Mandarin, as it operates against the foundations of the sensibilities defining humanity. CHINA IS DOOMED. And America's Walmart (A. K. A  ChinaMart) will need to find another impoverished and subjugated people to exploit: governed by genocidal goons. Just good business?

First Financial Insights 
November 26, 2012

How's about Russian? 

Paul Krugman: Franc Thoughts on Bond Vigilantes

Paul Krugman: Franc Thoughts on Bond Vigilantes

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/23/franc-thoughts-on-bond-vigilantes/

Bond Vigilanti's Response:

Krugman's Poor Analysis;

"Francly, Frustrating And Frightening"

Paul's NY Times analysis is simply frightening and frustrating. First of all , we question the intellectual honesty of picking only one country's circumstances out of thousands, and then using this anecdotal observation to draw a scientific conclusion about the whole population of similar situations. This is too convenient - pick the circumstances that fit your argument and ignore everything else - we were born late at night - it just wasn't last night.

Secondly, how much credibility should we give to the numbers from the IMF data bank of the 1920s. They were hand calculated, used different models by country/regime, by year (perhaps by month) and were free from any sort of bias (ha, ha). You can see the problem. The evidence presented is not subject to verification of any sort - you might as well read either tea leaves or Goldman Sach's Annual Statements. Both would be closer to the truth.

The third glaring error in this analysis, is the measure that is used for national debt. Again, Krugman's analysis is intellectually misleading as he tricks us into thinking that this is an apples to apples comparison. It is not. For instance in the 1920's there was very little consumer debt and the banking systems leverage is impossible to compare given the exponentials created today by derivatives and such. A fairer apples to apples comparison would be national debt inclusive of government, banking, business and consumer debts, other analysis would fail to provide credible comparisons - and thereby, impossible to draw any sort of credible conclusion.

Despite these horrific intellectual errors the commentary is built to conclude that a spike in rates with a corresponding debasement in both the US currency and T Bills would provide an expansionary influence for the economy. Exports would expand, however the trade off would be a sharp compression in asset values across the board. Long bonds, real estate and markets could collapse by 30% or more. Net worth, and notably highly levered net worth, could be wiped out overnight - bringing on a banking crisis that would pale in comparison to 2008. The overall psychological effect on the consumer and institutions would be so negative that it should destroy any expansionary benefit imagined. (Actually the actual calculus of the pluses and minuses is not determinable.)

Enough already, Paul states that there are no examples where the debasement of bonds and currency negatively affected a nation - how far did you look when you already have a case that supports the conclusion you want the reader to believe is the reality? How many national debt-time- periods were considered? Off the top we can think of three possible examples: Iceland, Nauru and Germany (30"s); however, this assumes that we can agree on the nature and characteristics of the apples.

Our concern is not really about whether we are right or wrong on this issue; it is more about the method and quality of analysis and that better analysis makes some attempt to fairly compare and contrast the object(s) involved. We ask: How is it possible that only one case can represent the whole of cases in the population? Should the analytical evidence and observations not be at comparable, objective and verifiable? Should the comparative analysis not be based on apples to apples?

It is thus remarkable that the policy discourse on such an important issue is subject to such weak analysis that neither proves or supports the fear-mongering of the vigilanties or others. Perhaps it has something to do with the so-called science of economics, as recently stated by George Sorros:

"Scientific method needs an independent criterion, by which the truth or validity of its theories can be judged. Natural phenomena constitute such a criterion; social phenomena do not. That is because natural phenomena consist of facts that unfold independently of any statements that relate to them. The facts then serve as objective evidence by which the validity of scientific theories can be judged. That has enabled natural science to produce amazing results."

Sadly and francly (sic), the New York Time's methods, analysis and its science (so-called) of economics could learn much from George's statement. We rest our case.

First Financial Insights

November 27, 2012

WANTED: Bond Vigilantes

Jim Rogers, Peter Kinesa, Marc Faber,Nouriel Roubini...

Investors' Insights:
Week Ending November 24, 2012 

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS

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Jimmy that was some lunch you ordered...

Jim Rogers: Shortages of Raw Materials will lead to Wars

Wow! Is Jim reading our blog and list of top recommended business books?

The most important concern that Jim fails to mention is the type of war. Another conventional world war is out of the question for at least two related reasons: One, the naval supply of war materials will be curtailed dramatically in a few days by guided drones and missiles; two, there will not ironically be enough raw materials for an extended war.

So, what type of war will prevail? For the likely answer, we suggest you read "How The End Begins". A link is provided on our recommended book list

First Financial Insights

November 22, 2012

Cripes General, he said lunch...NOT launch!

Dr Peter G Kinesa, : Jim Rogers:Communism and Socialism have failed man...:

 Jim Rogers:Communism and Socialism have failed many, many times The issue here is not the labels. Free enterprise, democracy, socialism; ...

We are not going to comment on Peter's words. They provide a succinct logical understanding and statement of the conceptual issues and complexities involved. Thanks Winnie.

First Financial Insights

November 22, 2012

Comrades, forward for the people...

Marc Faber : There will be Pain , very substantial Pain

While we do not rejoice when folks start to agree with our views - there is an odd sort of comfort and affirmation that comes when their voices ring out with our past conclusions. Thanks Marc for confirming what we set out a year ago in our blog regarding the collapse of the markets by 2020. Your comments here predict a similar event in the next 5 to 15 years.

Maybe there is a reason why we call ourselves "FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS" beyond this anecdotal affirming forecast provided by Marc Faber. There is more to a name - sometimes.

First Financial Insights

November 21,2012

"Pain...What Pain?"

Jim Rogers~US Headed For A Financial Crisis

Not going to repeat ourselves here and refer you to the comments on the Faber Blog posted today. By now, the message is pretty clear.

First Financial Insights

November 20,2012

It's clear to me -



Dr Peter G Kinesa, The Quantum Realonomist: Nouriel Roubini Blog: The Economic Contraction Is ...:

Nouriel Roubini Blog: The Economic Contraction Is Spreading Now To The C... : The economic contraction used to be in the periphery of the...

We think that the good Doctor is setting out the diagnosis. In the end, we still require a cure. That is the hard part.

First Financial Insights

November 20,2012

Dat is mine professional opinion, Schultz



Marc Faber : Investors should Buy themselves a machine gun in order to protect their assets

Marc's comments regarding pending scandals and the impeachment of OBAMA are far-fetched. That's being kind. Obviously, Mr. Faber needs to read a little Noam Chomsky to better understand the US socio-political culture. It is not in tea leaves. Moreover, if he thinks America has troubles, then Russia and China are the poster boys of bad stuff. And we mean BAD .

What are they going to do? When they come for you?

First Financial Insights

November 20, 2012

Bad Boys... When they come for you?

Jim Rogers: They are going to print money no matter what

And the real problem is they can create these  abstracts forever, causing a monumental future collision between addiction and reality.  Now that's the bartender's rock bottom prognosis . Remember?

First Financial Insights

November 19, 2012

Should have kept my day job...

Macro-Policy: A Lost Decade for the West

Numbers and charts in this analysis certainly support view that an economic ice age freezes the Westen economic growth. What this conventional analysis doesn't cover is the physical conditions constrainig the progress. Maybe next time.

First Financial Insights
November 19,2012

Cut off ???