More Warning Signs From China’s Economy
“Following the release of Chinese economic and money/credit data last week, there has been much confusion in the investment industry over whether or not Chinese economic growth is finally picking up. Having carefully examined all the data, we do not find evidence of a meaningful pick-up in growth.” – BCA Analytics
Another day, another warning about the state of China’s economy.
This time, the warning comes from analysts at BCA Analytics who are extremely concerned about China’s deteriorating capital spending. Specifically, BCA’s research shows that the growth rate in private fixed asset investment, excluding infrastructure, dropped to an all-time low during the first half of 2016.
Fixed asset investment growth in the manufacturing sector has fallen to 0% (year-on-year) and is about to turn negative if you take the monthly readings. The six-month moving average for the same metric has dropped to a ten-year low. Also, the six-month average of fixed asset investment in the mining sector plunged to a low of -20% in the past few months (one of the lowest levels recorded), and investment in the service sector has been bouncing around a 10-year low for much of this year.
To an extent, China has been manipulating its investment figures via the government’s fiscal/credit stimulus program. Under this program, authorities issued RMB 1.2 trillion of bonds between September 2015 and March 2016 to fund infrastructure projects, keeping infrastructure investment at very high levels. But this debt-funded building boom has only been able to take the edge off the deteriorating figures. China’s aggregate fixed asset investment growth rate has fallen to 8% this year, the lowest since 2001.
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